The event that has the strongest impact on the Vietnamese stock market in the current context is the announcement by US President Donald Trump that Vietnam and the US have reached an agreement on July 2, 2025. Accordingly, Vietnamese exports to the US will be subject to a 20% tax, while transhipment goods will be subject to a 40% tax.
However, the detailed terms of this agreement have not been officially announced, the stock market has reacted quite cautiously and there have been mixed fluctuations after this information.
Shortly after Donald Trump announced the trade deal, foreign investors recorded their largest net buying in at least the past year. Although this is not a large number compared to the net selling level in the past 3 years, the prospect is relatively good. Foreign investors recorded the largest net buying session in many years, absorbing a lot of selling pressure from domestic cash flow, showing a clear change compared to the previous cautious sentiment.
On the other hand, the trading session on July 3 saw the market witness a strong profit-taking move from domestic individual and institutional investors. Day-end data from HSC Securities Company shows that domestic individual investors are the main source of selling pressure.
However, this activity seems to stem from profit-taking rather than risk selling, as most of the cash flow tries to sell at high prices during the day and slows down significantly at low prices during the session.
This is especially true in industrial park and export stocks - stocks that have recovered strongly in the past few weeks. In general, selling pressure is naturally rotating and profit-making in the context of unclear prospects.
Earlier this week, the US President will announce the tariff after a 9-day postponement. This could be the second shock for investors after a strong shakeup in early April. However, this time if the information is positive, it will not have the same strong impact as the previous one. Investors still need to be mentally prepared to cope with possible scenarios.
The stock market has had an impressive increase for 3 consecutive weeks from the 1,300 area to nearly 1,390. The 1,400-point barrier is still an important psychological barrier before setting a new price base.
Mr. Nguyen Manh Dung - Senior Director of Market Strategy Research at HSC Securities Company - predicted that the fluctuations will continue even after the more detailed terms of the agreement are announced, especially on July 9, 2025. However, initial feedback from investors and businesses is quite positive.
After July 9, HSC experts assessed that there is a basis for the market to move towards a higher level, but before that, the possibility of an adjustment was quite high, because many stocks were overbought or had increased well from the bottom.
In the immediate future, the VN-Index is gradually moving towards the psychological resistance zone of 1,390 - 1,400 points, where local profit-taking is very likely to occur. VN-Index will have a technical correction when approaching this zone, an adjustment that most investors are also expecting to increase the share of stocks through bottom-fishing.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong - Senior Investment Director of DG Capital - said that the Vietnamese market is still in a medium-term uptrend following economic growth and expects to be upgraded early in the near future. The market may be affected in the short term by information about tariffs or even policies of countries, but the general trend is still positive.
Investors can follow the market wave from now until the end of the year before re-evaluating. The priority investment groups are banking, securities, retail, logistics and real estate. These are industry groups that can hold medium-term and even short-term surfing to optimize profits, Dr. Phuong commented.
