The stock market had many notable developments in the first trading week of July. The market width is quite positive, maintaining recovery rotation. Outstanding in the groups of seaport codes, securities, seafood, agriculture, information technology, insurance, banking, etc.
In total, the VN-Index increased by 15.53 points (1.13%) compared to the previous week to 1,386.97 points, towards the resistance zone around 1,400 points, the highest price peak established in July 2021.
Market liquidity increased, along with the return of foreign investors after the net selling period. Accordingly, foreign investors unexpectedly increased their net buying last week with the value of the two weekend sessions reaching thousands of billions. Accumulated to 5 sessions, foreign investors net bought VND 5,394 billion, the highest since the beginning of the year and the 5th week in 2025 for foreign investors to net disburse.
The Vietnamese stock market has received many positive reactions after US President Donald Trump recently attracted attention when posting information about the agreement between the US and Vietnam, including a tax rate of 20% on imported goods and 40% on goods transited from Vietnam, immediately creating many reactions in the US and Vietnamese stock markets.
According to experts, the 20% tax rate is considered an initial success when providing a basis scenario for the negotiation process on future technical factors, while contributing to stabilizing the psychology of domestic production activities.
At the recent Vietstock live program, Mr. Phan Van Hung - Head of Investment Consulting, Agribank Securities (Agriseco) Southern Branch - commented that although there are still concerns about tariff policies, with recent official statements related to negotiations between Vietnam and the US, it can be seen that the great risk of tariffs in the short term is not high.
However, from a cautious perspective, Mr. Hung said that the 1,300-point mark is still an important observation area. In the medium term, the market's upward trend is still maintained thanks to the Government's support policies, such as removing obstacles for projects, or legalized policies such as Resolution 42 to support the banking industry.
Accordingly, the market target this year can be expected to be 1,450 - 1,460 points. However, the possibility of adjusting to the 1,300-point area cannot be ruled out, especially if unexpected unexpected factors appear, Mr. Hung commented.
Assessing the group of industries that benefit from tax policies, Mr. Pham Luu Hung - Chief Economist of SSI - said that with the basic tax scenario of 20%, SSI has forecasted the profit growth of listed enterprises to be double digits, about more than 13%, equivalent to VN-Index at more than 1,400 points.
In particular, with the assumption that the general tax rate is 20% applied to all items, it is difficult to say which businesses will benefit, because the risks related to tariffs have gradually fading away, businesses have begun to have input data to calculate the risks and strategies in the coming period.
"It will be time to end this story to focus on other stories such as Vietnam's growth from domestic momentum such as public investment, infrastructure investment, efforts to boost domestic consumption... People may not be too worried about tariff risks in the coming period," Mr. Hung stated his opinion.
Regarding the short-term trend of the market, the VN-Index has increased for 3 consecutive weeks and is in the highest price range in 3 years. Some experts also warned that profit-taking will gradually appear and the possibility of continuing to break out in the stock market is not high as the new momentum is still not really clear. The market will receive more second quarter business results reports from listed companies - the main factor leading to differentiation according to the individual stories of each industry group and each stock.
