In the newly published Asia Development perspective report, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has raised its growth forecast for Asian economies. Accordingly, the organization expects 46 member economies to grow by 5.1% this year, up from 4.8% as forecast in September.
For 2026, ADB forecasts that these economies will grow by 4.6%, slightly higher than the previous forecast of 4.5%. Notably, Vietnam is among the groups with the strongest adjusted increase, from 6.7% (expected in September) to 7.4%.
According to ADB, the adjustment of forecasts for the above economies is mainly due to the impact of US tariffs, which is not too serious. However, the bank has warned that uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies remain a major barrier to the Asian economic outlook. Escalating trade tensions and fluctuations in financial markets can put pressure on export and investment activities, while aggravating debt and capital flow problems here.
At the International Conference on Contemporary Issues in Economy, Management and Business (CIEMB 2025) held last week, Dr. Jochen M. Schmittmann - Chief Representative of the IMF in Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia emphasized: Vietnam is a success story.
looking at the overall socio-economic situation of Vietnam as of November 2025, Dr. Jochen M. Schmittmann emphasized that Vietnam is "a clear success story" with high growth rate, rapidly shifting economic structure and GDP per capita continuously improving. He noted that Vietnam is shortening the gap with emerging markets, even starting to catch up with some more developed economies.
However, the world is changing at an unprecedented pace as the trade model fluctuates due to geopolitical tensions, supply chains are disrupted, AI spreads in all fields and inflation continues in many countries. These fluctuations have a profound impact on the welfare, productivity and competitiveness of the global economy. Vietnam is an economy that is heavily dependent on trade, directly affected and needs to clearly identify risks to have an effective response strategy.
Dr. Jochen M. Schmittmann recommends that, to maintain competitive advantage, Vietnam needs to diversify the market, participate more deeply in new-generation agreements, invest in green standards and requirements of origin instead of relying only on cheap labor and massive exports. This is an important condition to avoid being "stuck" in the short-term growth cycle.
In the latest report published in early December on global economic prospects, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) adjusted the forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth to 6.2% for 2026 and 5.8% for 2027. This is a positive signal showing that the Vietnamese economy continues to maintain a solid macro foundation, even in the context of many uncertainties in international trade.
The OECD assessed that 2025 will record a strong "push-up" of the Vietnamese economy, with GDP in the third quarter of 2025 increasing by 8.2% over the same period last year. The main drivers continue to come from final consumption, accumulation of fixed assets and export of goods and services.
Previously, HSBC also raised its growth forecast for Vietnam to 7.9% for 2025 and 6.7% for 2026. This is also the closest forecast compared to Vietnam's growth target in 2025, which is over 8%. Or United Overseas Bank (UOB) also raised Vietnam's 2025 growth forecast from 7.5% to 7.7% in the Q4 Economic Prospects Report.
