In the first 11 months of 2025, the Vietnamese economy recorded many positive signals with a clear recovery in most areas. According to data from the Statistics Office (Ministry of Finance), international trade activities continued to flourish when the total import-export turnover reached 839.75 billion USD, up 17.2% over the same period; the trade balance maintained a trade surplus of more than 20 billion USD, contributing to stabilizing the macro economy.
FDI capital continues to be a bright spot, with 33.69 billion USD in registered capital and 23.6 billion USD in implemented capital, both increasing compared to the previous year, showing that Vietnam is still attractive in the eyes of foreign investors. Domestic consumption recovered steadily when total retail and service revenue increased by 9.1%. Industrial production increased by 9.3%, of which the processing and manufacturing industry increased by more than 10%, continuing to play a role as a growth driver. Tourism has broken through with more than 19 million international visitors, thanks to favorable visa policies and strong promotional activities.
According to Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang - an economic expert, with the above figures forecasting GDP growth for the whole year of 2025, it can reach over 8%. By 2026, if the drivers including public investment, import-export, FDI, consumption, tourism, digital transformation, green transformation are well utilized, GDP growth can approach 10%.
However, Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang also noted that Vietnam still faces challenges such as slow institutional improvement and digitalization; geopolitical risks affecting the supply chain; limited logistics infrastructure; high business costs...
If the policies that have just been issued are implemented in a timely manner, combined with the recovery of international trade, Vietnam can completely maintain a high growth rate, creating a solid foundation for the breakthrough period in 2026 - Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang assessed.
Previously, many international organizations also raised their forecasts for Vietnam's economic growth. In the latest report published in early December on global economic prospects, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) adjusted the forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth to 6.2% for 2026 and 5.8% for 2027. This is a positive signal showing that the Vietnamese economy continues to maintain a solid macro foundation, even in the context of many uncertainties in international trade.
The OECD assessed that 2025 will record a strong "push-up" of the Vietnamese economy, with GDP in the third quarter of 2025 increasing by 8.2% over the same period last year. The main drivers continue to come from final consumption, accumulation of fixed assets and export of goods and services.
HSBC has also raised its growth forecast for Vietnam to 7.9% for 2025 and 6.7% for 2026. This is also the closest forecast compared to Vietnam's growth target in 2025, which is over 8%. Or United Overseas Bank (UOB) also raised Vietnam's 2025 growth forecast from 7.5% to 7.7% in the Q4 Economic Prospects Report.
