The market experienced another week of decline, although the extent of the drop was significantly narrower compared to the previous week. The cash flow showed a relatively positive return after adjustments, but it mainly targeted small, highly speculative stocks. At the end of the trading week, the VN-Index decreased by 5.51 points (-0.44%), down to 1,236.6 points. The HNX-Index fell by 5.1 points (-2.15%), down to 231.56 points. Liquidity on both exchanges improved compared to the previous trading week, with trading volume increasing by 8.95% on the HOSE and nearly 19% on the HNX.
According to experts, the market fluctuations over the past week were partly influenced by information compiled from the Q2/2024 financial reports of securities companies, showing that the total margin debt reached a new peak of nearly 230 trillion VND, higher than the peak debt level of the market at the beginning of 2022. Additionally, negative impacts from the international stock market caused many investors to trade in anxiety, even panic, as the VN-Index continuously dropped, breaking through the 1,240-point support level, at times falling below 1,220 points. Investors are concerned about the appearance of a sell-off effect in the context of high margin debt and increased margin call pressure.
Typically, when a widely recognized technical support level like the 1,245 - 1,250 point range is easily breached, a sell-off usually follows. However, the market's reaction at the end of last week demonstrated that the "leading" cash flow in the game did not pay much attention to that technical level to decide to exit the market; they might even exploit that psychological level to "break" the positions of short-term traders.
Investors and experts still maintain confidence in the market outlook for the next 2 - 3 months based on stable macroeconomic conditions both domestically and internationally, the approaching time for the Fed to lower interest rates, and the forecasted continued improvement in corporate profit growth in the last quarters of the year. The recovery in the overall economic outlook will drive profit growth for listed companies.
Some analytical reports from securities companies estimate that market profit growth will be around 20% and 15% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. In 2024, after a modest increase of only 5.3% in Q1, the market's net profit is estimated to increase by 9.5% in Q2, 33.1% in Q3, and 21.9% in Q4.
Sectors expected to see strong profit growth in 2024 include: banking, retail, construction materials, and electricity. Technically, if the VN-Index "patches" back to the 1,250-point level, a new wave is likely to form.
