Vietnam's economic prospects
The VN-Index has increased by nearly 30% since the beginning of June 2025, when this index recorded about 1,300 points in early June and peaked at 1,690 points in mid-September, showing a strong and impressive recovery.
However, in recent weeks, the VN-Index has shown signs of slight adjustment, down about 3-4% compared to its peak. Many experts believe that investors should be cautious when waiting for economic data such as GDP in the third quarter of 2025 and information to upgrade the market from frontier to emerging market on October 7.
Assessing the prospects of the Vietnamese economy, Dr. Le Duc Khanh - Director of Analysis at VPS Securities Company - commented that the developments are in a positive trend, while investors are often interested in cyclization. When a growth cycle leads to increased asset prices, it will attract investors' interest in the stock market, allocating cash flow from savings to stock channels and other asset tools to increase.
Believing in the stock market, Ms. Do Minh Trang - Director of Market Analysis and Strategy, ACBS predicted that the VN-Index in the last months of the year could reach 2,000 - 2,100 points thanks to changes in the force controlling market liquidity. The proportion of foreign investors has decreased from 16% to about 12-13% in the past 5 years, while the proportion of domestic institutional investors accounts for about 40%, private investors hold about 45%. This is considered a new force with smart cash flow, strengthening the growth confidence of the Vietnamese economy and stock market.
What are the opportunities for new cash flow to invest?
Mr. Nguyen Hung, a private investor in Hanoi, chose to invest in banking stocks because he believes that this is an essential industry, closely linked to daily activities.
He said, "Although the market is sometimes volatile, bank stocks are often more stable than other industry groups. With information on market upgrading and many credit support packages for small businesses, I have more confidence that the banking industry will continue to increase". Mr. Hung's mentality is also the common mentality of many investors.
Ms. Do Minh Trang - Director of Market Analysis and Strategy, ACBS - said that the strong growth of the stock market, contributing to that increase, has a large proportion from the banking industry. This is still considered a source of capital "pumping", when it currently accounts for about 59 - 60% of the country's economy.
According to Ms. Trang, although the valuation of the banking industry is still low compared to the history of P/E, P/B indexes and book value, stocks in this industry are still highly appreciated for medium and long-term investment with a reasonable proportion.
Regarding real estate stocks, Ms. Trang said that the residential real estate market has "heeled up" since the end of 2024, thanks to large projects of large enterprises. However, the reach is not wide enough for small and medium-sized investors.
In late 2025 and early 2026, with the Government's policies to remove legal difficulties, it is expected that project offering activities, revenue and profit of small and medium-sized real estate companies will grow, creating more investment opportunities for individuals with real estate stocks.
The Director of Market Analysis and Strategy, ACBS, said that although the progress of public investment disbursement has not met expectations, with more than VND434 trillion equivalent to 39.79% of the plan in the first 8 months of the year, this sector is still expected to develop long-term. Accordingly, listed enterprises in the construction materials industry such as steel, plastic, stone, sand and gravel will benefit from the public investment cycle. The profit margin of infrastructure construction enterprises has also been expanded thanks to reduced raw material prices due to the Chinese economy not recovering, while domestic demand is strong. Regarding the retail industry, Ms. Trang commented positively when the sales of goods and services in August increased higher than the average of the first 8 months of the year.
The VN-Index closed on September 29, recording an increase of 0.35% to 1.666.48 points. The market development has a "green skin" state (slight increase but uneven), reflecting investors' caution.
stocks in the real estate and industrial groups have seen positive developments, while the information technology and finance and banking groups have somewhat adjusted. Liquidity and market fluctuations remain low, trading volume reaches about 808.56 million shares. There were 86 stocks increasing in price, 233 stocks decreasing in price and 55 stocks unchanged. The cash flow into the increased stock price is about VND9,026 billion, while the depreciated stock price is about VND13,873 billion. In the industry group, real estate has many decreased codes such as DXG (3.96%), DIG (-2.98%), PDR (-2.65%), SCR (-2.5%), HQC (-2.1%), but there are still some light blue codes such as VHM, NVL. The industrial group had a positive performance with HHV increasing by 0.90%, VCG increasing by 1.08% but some codes decreased such as CII (-0.19%), VSC (-1.78%). The financial group had a strong differentiation, SHB decreased -2.33%, SSI decreased -1.18% while VPB increased by 2.30%, HDB increased by 2.49%.
