Banks and securities continue to be the main driving force
The Vietnamese stock market is experiencing a period of adjustment after a period of strong growth from the end of 2023 to present. After surpassing the 1,300-point mark, VN-Index was under profit-taking pressure, especially in stocks that have increased sharply. At the end of the trading session on March 20, 2025, the VN-Index decreased slightly by 0.7 points, down to 1,323.93 points.
Analysts said that the long-term trend is still positive, with the expectation that the VN-Index can move towards a strong resistance zone of 1,340 - 1,360 points in the short term and even approach the 1,500 point mark in 2025 if supporting factors continue to remain.
Mr. Tran Hoang Son - Director of Market Strategy, VPBank Securities Company (VPBankS) assessed that the current adjustment is mainly due to profit-taking activities after a strong increase. "The market is clearly differentiated, cash flow is starting to circulate between industry groups instead of focusing on some large-cap stocks as before. This is an opportunity for investors to restructure their portfolios, preparing for the next growth cycle.
Banking stocks still play a key role in supporting the VN-Index. In the early part of the year, stocks of top 1 banks such as VCB, BID, CTG led the market. Currently, cash flow is tending to shift to the top 2 and top 3 banking groups with stocks such as SHB, MSB, VPB thanks to the expectation of increasing capital, improving business operations and attractive valuations.
In addition, the securities group is also expected to benefit positively thanks to the high market liquidity. Leading securities companies such as SSI, VND, HCM not only attract cash flow from brokerage and margin lending activities but also benefit when the KRX system officially comes into operation, creating a foundation for market upgrading.
Mr. Nguyen The Minh - Director of Personal Customer Analysis, VNDirect Securities Company commented that the completion of the KRX system and the possibility of Vietnam being upgraded to an emerging market are key factors supporting the market this year. This is also an important driving force to attract foreign capital back after a long period of net selling in the past two years.
Transfer money flow
Regarding the real estate group, Mr. Tran Hoang Son assessed that cash flow after the period of focusing on large-cap stocks is tending to shift to small and medium-sized real estate stocks with good land funds and healthy financial situations. The policy of legal clearance and support for real estate credit continues to be a positive factor for this industry group.
According to Mr. Nguyen The Minh, industrial park real estate is also a segment with great potential in the context of strong FDI capital shift, especially when the US increases taxation on major trading partners such as China, Canada, Mexico. The wave of production shift creates more growth space for businesses owning large industrial park land funds.
Another highlight is the group of technology stocks, typically FPT, which is in the process of adjusting after a series of hot increases over the past two years. Mr. Tran Hoang Son assessed that the valuation of this group is currently quite high (P/E FPT about 30 times), along with net selling pressure from foreign investors causing stocks to fall to the support zone around VND 120,000/share. However, with a solid financial foundation and potential from digital transformation and artificial intelligence, technology groups are still a suitable long-term choice for investors when stock prices adjust to more attractive regions.
