Closing the session on March 9, VN-Index decreased by more than 115 points (-6.51%), to 1,652.79 points, recording a record decline in points. Similarly, HNX-Index also decreased by 7.21%, to 235.36 points. The whole market had 350 floor-price decliners, 509 decliners, and only 54 gainers, 9 ceiling-price gainers.
This is the trading session marking the strongest correction session in the history of Vietnamese stocks when calculated by points. In terms of relative value, 6.5% is the deepest decrease in nearly a year.
The total matched order value today reached nearly 41,000 billion VND, a sharp increase compared to 33,000 billion VND in the last week's session. HPG led in matched order value with more than 3,000 billion VND, followed by 4 bank representatives including STB, MBB, SHB and VCB.
Foreign investors extended the net selling streak for 5 consecutive sessions. This group sold nearly 4,000 billion VND, while buying less than 3,000 billion VND. The focus of foreign investors' selling is leading banking stocks.
Compared to other major markets, Vietnam's decrease far exceeded South Korea (KOSPI -5.96%), Japan (Nikkei 225 -5.24%), Indonesia (IDX -3.11%) or India (BSE Sensex -2.40%). Although VN-Index is not deep compared to the peak, hundreds of stocks have bottomed out since April 2025, when US President Donald Trump announced the global shocking reciprocal tax rate.
According to statistics from VietstockFinance, nearly 500 stocks have "broken" the bottom level set on April 9, 2025. Along with that, more than 100 stocks are also only about 5% away from the corresponding tax base.
Experts assess that the Vietnamese and global stock markets are unpredictable due to the fact that tensions between the US and Iran have not shown signs of cooling down. Strong fluctuations in gasoline and oil prices are creating negative impacts on the economy and financial markets. If oil prices continue to rise, the impact on production, business and economic costs will be very large.
In that context, the market's "input data" still has too many variables, making investor sentiment become cautious, even confused. Many people choose to sell to reduce risks.
Selling pressure also comes from the fear of being called for margin (call margin). Faced with concerns that a sharp market decline may trigger a sell-force wave, some experts believe that with a decrease of about 7% in one session, the market is only approaching the call margin threshold, not yet to the point of being forced to sell for margin release. Only when the market continues to see similar sharp declines, the risk of hitting the call margin threshold becomes truly clear.
Vietcap Securities Company gave an assessment, saying that in the past, VN-Index has repeatedly experienced unexpected declines when moving in an upward trend. After quick and unexpected corrections, the market recovered and grew strongly afterwards. However, the Middle East war situation is still complicated, so it is still early to determine the balance point for VN-Index in this decline.
Technically, experts believe that the 1,600 point mark becomes an important psychological threshold. If selling pressure weakens, the market may recover in the coming sessions. However, if it falls below this threshold, the most pessimistic scenario is that the index will fall to 1,400-1,500 points.
Although the short-term trend is still in a negative state, the market is expected to set a bottom in one to two sessions. Experts from Yuanta Securities Company point out two bases for this assessment.
First, market valuation has decreased to a relatively low level, with P/E currently around 12 times. Second, many stocks have fallen into a state of deep oversold, thereby increasing the possibility of technical recovery.
However, investors still need to prepare many different scenarios to proactively respond to market developments.
Regarding trading strategies, the recommendation for investors with large cash holdings is to consider bottom-fishing a part with a small proportion to probe in advance, because market risks are still high. In case the market continues to experience another sharp decline session, it is possible to consider buying more parts. Then, when the upward trend is more clearly confirmed, new investors should gradually increase the proportion. What needs to be avoided is to strongly disburse right in the current volatile period, because if the market continues to fall deeply for a few more sessions, the risk of losses will be very high.
