Global gold prices are on track to end their fourth consecutive month of increase, as the market has high hopes for the first interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the US dollar continues to weaken.
According to Bloomberg, gold has increased strongly in most months of 2025, benefiting from the emerging monetary easing cycle, increased safe-haven flows and net buying by central banks. This could be gold's strongest year of gains since 1979, when defensive sentiment dominated the global market.
In the most recent trading session (2728 November), spot gold prices reached 4,154.27 USD/ounce, while December futures are anchored around 4,150 USD/ounce, according to Kitco News. Despite a short-term profit-taking after a two-week peak, analysts said the momentum to increase is still solid, reinforced by expectations that the Fed will soon cut interest rates.
The CME futures contract pricing tool shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has reached about 85%, compared to 30% just a week before. The prospect of low interest rates has caused US bond yields to decrease, thereby increasing the attractiveness of gold - a non-interest-bearing but safe asset in crisis.
Speaking to Kitco, Mr. Sameer Samana, senior strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said: Slow interest rates, weak USD and the correction of the crypto market are creating a very strong foundation for gold to continue to increase.
Mr. Samana said this could be a "medium-term upward wave", as global cash flow is gradually leaving risky assets and returning to precious metals.
According to Bloomberg, gold has increased in price for most months of 2025 and is looking forward to the fourth consecutive month of increase, supported by net buying by central banks, capital flow back to ETFs and expectations of a loose Fed.
Many major financial institutions, including Deutsche Bank, have also raised their 2026 gold price forecast to around $4,450/ounce, saying the long-term trend of gold remains solid if global monetary policy continues to shift to growth support.
Experts recommend that investors monitor the price range of 4,150 - 4,160 USD/ounce, considered an important resistance level; if they overcome it, gold could set a new peak in 2025.
