In the first quarter of 2026, many listed real estate businesses achieved quite good business results and profits.However, behind the increase in the stock market in recent times, most real estate stocks have not yet reflected the market recovery.
According to Vietstock statistics, from the beginning of 2026 to the end of the session on May 11, only 3 out of 20 stocks in the real estate industry group were tracked to record positive price increases such as NVL (+25.8%), VHM (+29.8%) and HHS (+0.024%).The rest all decreased in price, in which many codes adjusted deeply.
According to VPBankS Research's assessment, the slowdown of the real estate market today mainly stems from two macroeconomic factors. First, rising interest rates on floating house purchases have increased debt repayment pressure, forcing many secondary investors to restructure their portfolios or accept localized losses.
Second, the process of adjusting administrative boundaries and shaping the "new Ho Chi Minh City" after the merger is creating delays in legal approval as well as establishing a new land price level.
Consumption is also recording a quiet state, most clearly in the Ho Chi Minh City market.The price level of inner-city apartments has exceeded the threshold of 100 million VND/m2, causing transactions to decline sharply.
In addition to price factors, credit continues to be a major "bottleneck" of the market.The orientation of credit growth for the entire system at 15% and the requirement to control real estate balances not exceeding the general credit growth rate at each bank are creating direct pressure on the liquidity of the secondary market.
Financial analyst, Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Director of Strategic Investment of DG Capital, said that the Q1/2026 profit results of real estate businesses, although positive, do not reflect the sustainable recovery of the market.
Most of the current profit comes from project transfers or recorded financial revenue, not real cash flow from sales to the market.This shows that the market is still in a state of "retention", stagnating after a period of decline.Besides, legal obstacles have only solved the "necessary condition" of supply.The market still lacks "sufficient conditions", including real liquidity and stable purchasing power.
According to a recent assessment by VIS Rating, the prospects of the housing real estate industry in 2026 are facing more challenges than the previous recovery period.Although the market has overcome the most difficult period in terms of legal and liquidity, the environment of rising interest rates is creating pressure on home buying demand as well as the ability of businesses to raise capital.
Notably, VIS Rating assesses that real estate credit will be more tightly controlled according to the direction of the State Bank.In that context, investors will have to depend more on bond channels, equity mobilization and M&A to meet project implementation capital needs.This is considered a factor that causes the market to begin to strongly differentiate financial health as well as credit dossiers between real estate businesses.
In which, the group of businesses that still have legal obstacles or are heavily dependent on resort real estate will continue to bear great pressure on refinancing and operating cash flow.VIS Rating noted that the credit dossiers of some businesses such as NVL, API or NRC are still weak due to prolonged negative business cash flow, limited cash flow and stalled project progress.
The group of real estate stocks after a period of continuous price decline, the P/B level has also adjusted to a more reasonable level.However, the driving force for price increases in the coming time is forecast to be differentiated, no longer spreading widely, requiring careful screening between businesses.
The most important message for portfolio managers in the current period is to be cautious with short-term growth figures.The profits of 2026 largely reflect past achievements, while the pressure of land, material and loan costs is increasingly eroding future profit margins.
