From the beginning of 2025 to the end of the session on February 17, foreign investors have net sold approximately VND13,600 billion, equivalent to a value of more than half a billion USD. And if we calculate the net selling value of foreign investors on the Vietnamese stock market from the beginning of 2023 to present, it has exceeded VND 130,600 billion, equivalent to about 5.1 billion USD of foreign capital withdrawn from the Vietnamese stock exchange.
According to analysts, investment funds tend to invest in stocks with large capitalizations, especially foreign funds. Because the capitalization of these stocks is large, the increase and decrease of stocks significantly affects the increase and decrease of the general market. The fact that large stocks are facing continuous selling pressure in late 2024 also makes it difficult for the market to break out to a new, higher price zone.
In 2024, VCB shares were net sold by foreign countries for VND 2,300 billion, VHM was net sold for VND 19,400 billion... In particular, even the very "hot" name in the eyes of foreign investors, FPT, was net sold for VND 6,000 billion in the context of this stock price still increasing sharply.
In the first period of 2025, FPT also continued to be sold continuously with large volumes. After less than 2 months of the first months of 2025, this stock was net sold for VND 2,200 billion, leading the whole floor. Strong selling pressure has caused the ownership ratio of foreign investors in this technology stock to decrease to 44.6%, the lowest in many years.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong - Director of Strategic Investment of DG Capital - said that exchange rate pressure is one of the factors most likely to significantly affect foreign capital flows. The devaluation of VND compared to USD affects the performance of foreign funds, limiting the ability to attract capital, and at the same time, cash flow is also withdrawn from frontier markets such as Vietnam.
In addition, the domestic stock market still lacks attractive enough long-term investment opportunities due to a lack of quality goods. This is the reason why foreign investors are not interested in Vietnamese stocks.
In the analysis report on the movement of foreign capital flows, analysts from Shinhan Securities said that the sideways stock market is partly due to foreign investors continuously selling net. Normally, foreign funds will net buy (in both volume and value) in January each year because this is the time to restructure the portfolio of global investment funds. However, in January 2025, foreign investors net sold VND6,500 billion on HOSE, according to Fiinpro data.
Therefore, the suspension of foreign investors will have a positive impact on the market. However, Shinhan Securities said that the trend of foreign investors selling net and focusing on selling in large stocks will continue at least in the first quarter of 2025 as Vietnamese stocks are waiting for supporting information from market upgrading so that foreign capital can return.
In the upcoming March 2025 assessment period, investors expect FTSE to have an objective and positive view of the solutions that Vietnam has implemented. By the September assessment period, the Vietnamese stock market can expect to be upgraded.
Factors to monitor to expect a reversal of foreign capital flows include: Vietnam market upgraded and global interest rates (FED and 10-year US government bonds) decreased or stabilized in the new price range. When interest rates are stable, the exchange rate will also be stable. Once these factors appear simultaneously, foreign capital will return, Shinhan Securities commented.
