Oil prices are likely to trade around $70 a barrel this year, as weak Chinese demand and rising global supplies offset efforts by OPEC and its allies to shore up the market, a monthly Reuters poll showed.
The weaker demand outlook in China in particular has forced both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) to cut their global oil demand growth expectations for 2024 and 2025.
The IEA forecasts that the oil market will enter 2025 with a surplus, even if OPEC+ delays its planned production increase until April 2025 amid falling oil prices.
According to OilPrice 2025, the market will continue to focus on China. Weak demand from the East Asian country is likely to continue to hold down prices this year unless any economic stimulus measures the Beijing government is rolling out spur greater demand for the key commodity.
Pepperstone Brokerage analyst Quasar Elisundia told the Wall Street Journal that the calm in the oil market hides a complex interplay of macroeconomic factors that could cause sharp fluctuations at any time.
According to the analyst, market attention will be focused on developments in macroeconomic data and future decisions by OPEC and its allies (OPEC+), which will determine the market's direction in the coming months.
On the macroeconomic front, the focus is on India, which is shaping up to be the next top demand driver globally. S&P Global Commodity Insights recently forecast that India’s oil demand growth will surpass China’s this year.
On the supply side, aside from the US, this year will see continued output growth from Guyana, Canada and Brazil. Expectations that OPEC+ will gradually increase production during the year are fading as the group will only increase if prices rise sufficiently.
Many expect a supply glut this year, although US President-elect Donald Trump's sanctions on Iran could tighten supplies from the Middle East and create some upside momentum.
A representative of a petroleum business said that domestic petroleum prices will fluctuate according to the world petroleum situation. According to current market developments, it is forecasted that in the price adjustment period this afternoon, petroleum prices will have opposite adjustments in the direction of increasing petroleum prices and decreasing oil prices. Of which, petroleum prices may increase by about 150 VND/liter; oil prices may decrease by about 60 VND/liter.
In the most recent adjustment period on December 26, 2024, the adjustment agency decided to reduce the price of E5 RON 92 gasoline by 430 VND/liter to 19,810 VND/liter; RON 95 gasoline by 460 VND/liter to 20,540 VND/liter. Similarly, the price of diesel oil decreased by 100 VND/liter to 18,630 VND/liter; kerosene decreased by 260 VND/liter to 18,700 VND/liter; meanwhile, fuel oil increased by 70 VND/kg to 15,970 VND/kg.
