Schematic calculations are still present in the market when the VN-Index approaches the old peak of 1,700 points with high selling pressure in the market. Many experts believe that the stock market may continue to move sideways around the current level in the next few sessions.
At the same time, the market will be affected by the Fed's interest rate cut information and the derivatives maturity session, so the market is likely to fluctuate strongly in the coming sessions. The current negative point is that cash flow is still low and the indicator of weak psychology shows that investors are still cautious with current market developments.
And last night, the Fed officially cut interest rates by another 0.25 percentage points after a policy meeting, marking the first time in 9 months that the central bank has loosened monetary policy in the context of a significantly weakening labor market. The Dow Jones index increased, while the S&P 500 index decreased slightly in the volatile trading session on Wednesday (September 17), when the US Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered interest rates as expected.
This is the basis for analysts from Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS) to assess that the domestic and foreign macro picture continues to support the long-term increase of the stock market in the last months of 2025.
According to practice, credit growth often accelerates in the last months of the year, strongly promoting profits at the same time for both banks and businesses listed on the exchange. The new policy on e-commerce and the postponement of the plan to impose property tax are also expected to create momentum for the market, especially for banking and real estate stocks.
In addition, the exchange rate pressure reduction is the use of new monetary regulation tools of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) along with supporting information when the Fed cuts interest rates in September, which can reduce pressure on the interbank market when the credit institution is becoming less effective, while creating room for the SBV to continue maintaining a low interest rate policy until the end of the year.
Above all, the story of upgrading stocks is also a "catalyst" for the market's increase. Accordingly, the index of frontier stock markets often increases before the 1-year and long-term upgrade along with economic growth potential.
With the increase of VN-Index in July and August, the general index is trading at P/E 14.9x. P/E is currently at an attractive level compared to the regional average (~15.3x) and 5-year average (~14.4x), while the low interest rate level and credit growth increased sharply in the last months of the year, which is expected to continue to support abundant market liquidity and raise the P/E valuation level of the sectors to a new high level.
In the last months of 2025, VCBS has estimated that Vietnam's P/E will fluctuate in the 13.4x - 16.4x range in 2025. VN-Index is moving towards the peak of the era and continues to move towards the base scenario at 1,672 and the positive scenario at 1,854 points in the last 4 months of 2025.
In addition, VCBS said that in the process of going up, the market will inevitably have strong fluctuations, even the risk of reversal with notable variables of high inflationary pressure and changes and reversals in monetary policy.
