The increase slows down, capital flows focus on banks and securities
Last week, the VN-Index surpassed the resistance level of 1,700 points but quickly turned to decrease sharply. According to Ms. Tran Thi Khanh Hien - Research Director of MBS, the increase is slowing down as the index approaches the 1,700 point mark. In the last trading week of August, the VN-Index increased by a total of 37 points, of which VIC and VHM contributed nearly 10 points, while VCB contributed nearly 8 points. This shows the index's dependence on some large-cap stocks.
In addition, strong foreign net selling is holding back the index's increase. 2024 is considered a record year of net selling by foreign investors with VND92,000 billion, but there has never been a month when foreign investors have net sold as strongly as last August with VND42,700 billion.
"The total market liquidity peaked at VND62,000 billion, then decreased by about 27% in the last week of August. Currently, capital flows are mainly concentrated in the banking group (accounting for 30%) and securities (24%) - the highest proportion since the beginning of the year" - Ms. Hien said.
Regarding the trend, MBS experts offer three scenarios. In the base scenario, the market will form a recovery zone around 1,700 points. In case of caution, the important support threshold is at 1,615 - 1,625 points. In the opposite direction, the new peak area could be around 1,690 - 1,694 points. In this context, MBS recommends a partial profit-taking strategy, bringing the ratio of stocks - cash to the balance level and focusing on specific stocks instead of referring to the general index.
The market accumulates, opportunities in the group have not increased much
From a short-term perspective, experts from Saigon - Hanoi Securities (SHS) assessed that the VN-Index is still growing above the support zone of 1,650 points, with stronger support at 1,600 points. After a period of strong price increases in August - when the average trading volume reached 1.67 billion shares per session - the market showed signs of slowing down, liquidity gradually decreased.
Usually, after a strong increase beyond the historical peak, the market as well as many stocks that have increased rapidly will have to face pressure to adjust and accumulate to re-evaluate the peak area. However, short-term cash flow still shows quite good circulation" - SHS representative commented.
According to SHS, the short-term opportunity will shift to the group of stocks that have not increased much, but have a solid foundation and improved business prospects in the third quarter and the end of 2025. The group of financial services, residential real estate, construction and construction materials is expected to record more positive business results in the third quarter compared to the same period, thanks to the benefits of public investment progress and the recovery of market demand.
Expectations of market upgrading create motivation
One factor that investors are particularly interested in is the expectation of upgrading the market. FTSE Russell is expected to announce the assessment results on October 7.
In this context, the group of securities stocks is being considered an early sign for the trend, when many stocks such as SSI, VND, SHS have traded more positively than the approach of 1,700 points of the VN-Index.
"The developments of the securities group in the first 2 weeks of September may give an early signal about the possibility of upgrading" - Ms. Hien emphasized.
Although September is often the period with low performance in both domestic and international markets, analysts believe that the expectation of upgrading and the prospect of business results in the third quarter will become the driving force to help the VN-Index maintain stability and move towards a positive trend.
In the current context, securities companies recommend that investors choose stocks based on fundamental factors instead of general indexes. With capital flows still circulating between industry groups and market upgrade information approaching, the Vietnamese stock market is expected to maintain a positive accumulation state, creating a foundation for new progress in the last quarter of the year.
