In the past week, the market recorded bottom-fishing cash flow operating well in the 1,600 - 1,620 point range with liquidity increasing slightly again, remaining at over VND 35,000 billion. The VN-Index is currently still in a tight tight tight tight range of 1,630-1,700 points after a period of rapid increase and is waiting to confirm a new trend.
Foreign investors continue to net sell more than expected in the context of many important information in the domestic and international markets. However, the positive point is that they often return to net buying when the index is deeply adjusted, showing that the current move is mainly to take profits after the VN-Index increased by more than 20% in just two months and to manage risks, not a sign of withdrawal or loss of confidence in the medium and long-term outlook.
On the contrary, domestic capital flows are absorbing the net selling pressure from foreign investors, especially around the important technical support level of 1,620 points, thereby maintaining a stable rhythm for the market in the phases of commodity fraud. Domestic capital flows remain proactive, despite concerns about increased leverage at securities companies.
Overall, profit-taking efforts currently only create small and short adjustments. VN-Index maintains an upward accumulation trend, supported by domestic capital flows and the rotation of leading sectors. This strengthens the prospect that the index will soon complete the current accumulation rhythm to enter a new growth cycle in the short term, with the mark of 1,700 points continuing to be an important target in the coming time.
Looking to the end of 2025, the market outlook is still positive thanks to three major drivers: abundant credit until 2026, remarkable GDP growth, the ability to upgrade the stock market and the drastic progress of public investment disbursement. In that context, deep corrections in the short term, even in the session, can be seen as an opportunity for cash flow to return, consolidate the price base and create momentum for a more sustainable growth cycle, with the goal of reaching the threshold of 1,800 points. The real estate, banking and soon the consumer sectors can become the focus for both the short, medium and long term.
In a positive scenario, the VN-Index may challenge the upper limit at 1,700 points. However, the decisive factor lies in the developments of each stock: the market is only really strong when many industry groups regain their upward momentum and break through to new peaks. On the contrary, if only relying on some large-cap stocks to pull the index while the majority of stocks are trading weakly, the VN-Index can signal to a short-term distribution zone, needing more accumulation time before entering a stronger uptrend.
With accelerated credit along with low interest rate maintenance policies and the market approaching the upgrade target, it is expected to support the medium-term trend. However, experts also note that rapid credit growth could put pressure on inflation. On the other hand, to meet lending needs, banks may be forced to increase capital mobilization, leading to the risk of mobilization interest rates and lending increasing again.
Although this scenario is considered unlikely due to the Government's orientation in keeping interest rates low, inflation risks are still a factor to watch in the coming months.
Regarding which peak VN-Index can aim for, experts say that VN-Index may surpass the 1,700-point mark in the last months of this year, but may need more time to accumulate and consolidate the current price base within the range of 1,630 - 1,700 points. At the same time, trading sessions with large tournaments will challenge investor psychology.
In the coming period, if positive information appears to support the market, such as the FED successfully lowering interest rates and upgrading the market, this will be an important premise for market sentiment to improve and the VN-Index to aim to conquer new high score levels.
