FTSE Russell's official confirmation of the roadmap to upgrade the Vietnamese stock market to the Secondary Emerging Market group in September 2026 marks an important step forward in the process of international financial integration. The upgrade event is not only a turning point in liquidity but also affirms the prestige of the Vietnamese financial market on the global investment map.
For international investors, the confirmation from FTSE Russell is decisive because this is the world's leading organization providing stock indexes and market data, owned by the London Stock Exchange.
Being ranked by FTSE Russell in the Emerging Markets group is like a "certificate" of transparency and international operating standards, helping Vietnam become a mandatory destination in the investment portfolio in Asia.
Maybank Securities Company (MSVN) gave an assessment based on experience from recently upgraded markets such as China A shares, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, the process of putting into the index basket is usually carried out in many installments instead of just once, and does not necessarily follow a completely fixed quarterly roadmap.
In most cases, upgrades are divided into more than two phases to ensure market stability during capital absorption.
According to an announcement from FTSE Russell, index funds will purchase Vietnamese shares in 4 phases as follows: September 21, 2026 (ratio 10%), March 22, 2027 (20%), June 21, 2027 (35%) and September 2027 (35%).
Vietnam may account for an initial proportion of about 0.35-0.40% in the FTSE Emerging All Cap Index basket, corresponding to a passive capital flow estimated at 0.8-1.5 billion USD, while active capital flows may be 3-4 times higher. Although part of the capital flow may be disbursed early, the total foreign capital flow accumulated over time is estimated by MSVN to reach 6-8 billion USD, thereby creating a foundation for a structural liquidity revaluation cycle, similar to the historical experience of markets that were upgraded by FTSE.
In the short term, Maybank forecasts that market developments are likely to be supported by the psychology of anticipating upgrades and the accumulation of eligible stocks into the index basket. When the official time of being put into the basket is approaching, transaction liquidity and the proportion of foreign investors' participation will increase significantly, although short-term fluctuations may appear around portfolio restructuring periods. In the medium and long term, these factors are expected to contribute to raising the valuation level and consolidating the stability of the index.
Looking further, according to the assessment of SSI Research analysts, this upgrade result will also improve MSCI's upgrade prospects. Accordingly, FTSE's upgrade will create pressure and motivation for MSCI to re-examine Vietnam. The probability of Vietnam being included in MSCI's tracking list is very high in the June 2026 or June 2027 review period.
By June 2027, MSCI will have the opportunity to observe at least two restructuring periods of FTSE and see large cash flow from foreign funds operating effectively in Vietnam, thereby eliminating concerns about operations and infrastructure.
To move towards the goal of MSCI upgrade, Vietnam needs to continue to improve the central compensation partner (CCP) model and policies to ease foreign ownership. If CCP is implemented on schedule by the end of 2026, early 2027, Vietnam will achieve at least 3 more criteria, raising the total number of criteria achieved to about 13/18 criteria.
Regarding the foreign room factor, experts assess that the room expansion process is quite fast thanks to the new listing of large-room stocks and draft room expansion projects in industries such as aviation. This helps Vietnam significantly improve its score in the eyes of MSCI.
