Domestic coffee prices today
The domestic coffee market this morning, May 6, recorded a positive recovery after a series of gloomy days.
In key growing areas of the Central Highlands, purchasing prices simultaneously increased by 400 to 500 VND/kg, bringing the average price level of the whole region to the threshold of 86.100 VND/kg.
Specifically, in Dak Nong province (old), coffee prices recorded an increase of 500 VND, pushing the purchase price to the milestone of 86.2 million VND/kg, continuing to be the locality with the highest price in the region.
Dak Lak and Gia Lai provinces both had an increase of 400 VND, currently trading stably at 86,000 VND/kg.
Riêng khu vực Lâm Đồng niêm yết mức giá 85. 500 đồng/kg sau khi hồi phục thêm 500 đồng so với phiên hôm qua. Bên cạnh đó, giá hồ tiêu tiếp tục đi ngang ở mức cao 143. 000 đồng/kg, trong khi tỷ giá USD/VND tại Vietcombank giảm nhẹ 8 đồng về mức 26. 098 VND/USD.
World coffee prices
In the international market, the New York exchange became the focus when Arabica prices strongly broke through to the highest level in the past week.
At the end of the trading session, the July term increased by 4.25 cents (equivalent to 1.49%), closing at 289.75 cents/lb.
Following the same trend, Robusta prices in London also maintained green when increasing by another 14 USD (equivalent to 0.42%), reaching the 3,378 USD/ton mark. This recovery shows that the market is reacting very sensitively to fluctuations from the money market and the world geopolitical situation.
Coffee price assessment
The main driving force pushing coffee prices up comes from the resonance of many macroeconomic factors. Brazil's Real has jumped to its highest level in 2.25 years against the USD, directly putting pressure on Brazilian farmers to limit export sales because they earn less domestic currency.
At the same time, the prolonged blockade in the Strait of Hormuz due to Middle East tensions is still disrupting the global supply chain, pushing transportation costs, insurance and especially fertilizer prices to skyrocket. In addition, Arabica inventories on the ICE exchange anchored at a 2.25-month low and Robusta inventories maintained at a record low of 16.25 months (3,755 lots) are also important pillars helping prices escape the short-term bottom.
However, the breakthrough momentum of coffee prices still faces a major resistance from forecasts of a nearing super surplus crop year. Organizations such as StoneX and Marex still maintain their assessment of a record harvest in Brazil with an expected output of up to 75.9 million bags, which could lead to a global surplus of 10 million bags for 2026. In Vietnam, export data for the first 4 months of the year increased sharply by 15.8% to 810,000 tons, also contributing to easing concerns about short-term Robusta supply in the international market.
