Lower gasoline prices help CPI in July decrease
Data from the General Statistics Office (Ministry of Finance), on average for the first 7 months of 2026, core inflation increased by 4.19% compared to the same period last year, lower than the average CPI increase of 4.39% due to strong fluctuations in gasoline, gas and food prices, causing the overall CPI to increase, while these factors are excluded from the core inflation calculation list.
However, in July alone, it was recorded as the 2nd consecutive month that CPI decreased compared to the previous month. The 0.12% decrease in July mainly came from the cooling down of gasoline and food prices. This is clear evidence that the Government's macroeconomic management and inflation control policies are going in the right direction and are effective.
Talking to Lao Dong Newspaper, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang (National Economics University) said that the CPI in 7 months increased by 4.39%, close to the target of controlling inflation for the whole year. The pressure in the last months of the year is still high due to import prices of raw materials and fuels, especially energy, fluctuations and prolonged geopolitical conflicts, increasing input costs.
According to Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang, monetary policy is going in the right direction, but it is necessary to balance between controlling inflation and supporting growth. Price pressure may decrease if energy and imports cool down, exports increase, food supply is abundant, businesses reduce costs and the business environment continues to improve.
Assessing the difficulties and challenges in controlling inflation in the last 6 months of the year, Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong - Director of the Statistics Department (Ministry of Finance) - said that the diễn biến of world energy prices still contains many risks due to the complicated geopolitical situation. Input prices of raw materials and fuels for production still tend to be high. This is quite clearly reflected in the production price index and the index of raw materials and fuels used for production both increased compared to the same period last year. If input costs continue to increase for a long time, the pressure to switch to consumer prices will be greater.
Besides those pressures, there are still many favorable factors. Domestic goods supply is currently relatively abundant; agricultural production is stable; the distribution system is increasingly developing; the Government's price management is increasingly proactive and flexible. These are important factors to help limit the risk of price shocks" - Ms. Huong said.
Harmoniously coordinate fiscal policy and monetary policy
In Directive 06/CT-TTg in 2026, the Government sets a steadfast goal of controlling inflation in 2026 at an average of about 4.5%. With this goal, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang said that in the last months of the year, it is necessary to proactively ensure the supply and reserve of strategic commodities, especially energy, in order to limit the impact from price shocks in the world market. In parallel with that, it is encouraging businesses to save energy, reduce production costs, and improve the efficiency of using raw materials and labor. Improving the investment environment, cutting business costs and unofficial costs will also contribute to reducing price pressure.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang emphasized that it is necessary to continue to promote exports, support innovation, develop businesses and expand production. When the supply of goods increases, inflationary pressure will be reduced. For import activities, it is necessary to diversify markets and choose partners with competitive prices to limit import inflation.
If solutions from the State and the business community are implemented synchronously, I believe that the goal of controlling inflation is still within reach" - Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang said.
According to this expert, it is necessary to harmonize between fiscal policy and monetary policy. If fiscal policy is relaxed in the direction of tax exemption and reduction, investment support, and improving land policies to promote production, monetary policy also needs to be managed flexibly to control the amount of money circulating in the economy, avoiding creating inflationary pressure. More importantly, policies must aim to support businesses to expand production and improve the supply capacity of goods. When production develops, supply is more abundant, the economy both maintains growth and reduces inflationary pressure.
