The US Federal Reserve (FED) will enter an important policy meeting on September 15-16 (local time), as the market strongly leans towards the possibility that this agency will raise interest rates to control inflation.
The latest data shows that US consumer inflation in August was 3.4%, unchanged compared to the previous month and still higher than the FED's long-term target of 2%. After the data was released, the probability of the FED raising interest rates by 25 basis points at this meeting has risen to over 85%.
The FED's operating interest rate is currently maintained in the range of 3.50-3.75%. If the Fed decides to raise interest rates, borrowing costs in the US economy will increase, which may affect investment and consumption activities. The FED has kept interest rates unchanged since January to have more time to assess the impact of energy price fluctuations and tariff policies on prices.
The FED's interest rate decision is attracting the attention of the international market. For Vietnam, this development is also of concern as the scale of trade with the US is increasing, and import and export activities continue to maintain their upward momentum.
Xinhua News Agency reported that Vietnam's total import and export turnover of goods in the first 8 months of 2026 reached 770.14 billion USD, up 28.7% over the same period and setting the highest level ever in the same period. Exports reached 374.84 billion USD, up 22.4%.
The US continues to be Vietnam's largest export market with a turnover of 122 billion USD.
This result shows that trade activities are still one of the important drivers of the economy. Notably, the upward momentum is not only reflected in total turnover but also clearly appears in the manufacturing sector.
Xinhua quoted data from S&P Global Market Intelligence released on September 3rd showing that the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of Vietnam's manufacturing sector increased from 52.9 points in July to 53.3 points in August. The PMI continuing to stand above the 50 point threshold reflects expanding manufacturing activity. Production increased at the fastest pace in more than 2 years, while new orders also recorded the strongest increase since October last year.
Mr. Andrew Harker, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said that Vietnam's manufacturing industry began to accelerate strongly in mid-Q3/2026. As of August, output and new orders both increased sharply, not only returning to the high level recorded at the beginning of the year but also exceeding these milestones.
Another bright spot comes from the technology sector. In 8 months, the total trade turnover of computers, electronic products, telephones and components of Vietnam reached about 262 billion USD. Exports alone reached about 101 billion USD, an increase of 51% compared to the same period.
The upward momentum of the technology commodity group is taking place at a time when global investment in artificial intelligence (AI), data centers and semiconductors continues to increase. Xinhua quoted information from Moody's Analytics - a US risk management solution provider - as saying that the AI wave is contributing to supporting exports and investment in Southeast Asia. Vietnam is in the group of regional technology economies benefiting from this trend.
Positive results in trade, production and technology exports are creating a foundation for the Vietnamese economy to adapt to fluctuations from the international market. Along with the developments of monetary policy in the US, the development of AI and demand for technology products will be noteworthy factors for Vietnam's production and export activities in the last months of the year.
