Impressive growth despite global challenges
The Asian Development Bank (ADB)'s "Asia Development perspective for September 2025" report assessed that despite major challenges globally, the Vietnamese economy still achieved outstanding results in the first half of 2025. Impressive growth compared to the same period last year, up to 7.5% compared to 6.4% in the first half of 2024, marking the highest level in the first six months of the year since 2010.
According to ADB experts, although Vietnam's public investment has not yet reached the full-year plan, actual disbursement has contributed to the construction sector increasing by 9.6% compared to 7.3% in the same period in 2024.
On the demand side, ADB assessed strong trade growth and increased foreign direct investment (FDI) disbursement as contributing to boosting the economy in the first half of 2025. The accumulation of gross capital increased by 8.0% due to the disbursement of public investment capital increasing by 42.3% over the same period, reaching 30% of the annual plan. fiscal and monetary stimulus measures also boosted domestic demand, with end-to-end consumption increasing by 8%, compared to 5.8% in the same period last year.
Export orders increased sharply before the US imposed counterpart tariffs, which boosted trade in the first 8 months of 2025. By the end of August 2025, exports increased by 14.8%, reaching about 306 billion USD. The main markets with the fastest growth rates compared to the same period are the United States (26.4%), South Korea (11.8%), China (9.2%) and Japan (9%). Meanwhile, imports increased by 17.9%, reaching about 292 billion USD, mainly electronics, computers and components. The trade surplus reached about 14 billion USD, lower than the 18.8 billion USD in the same period last year.
FDI capital flows into Vietnam remain strong, supporting the industry. In the first 8 months of 2025, FDI disbursement increased by 8.8% over the same period, reaching 15.4 billion USD - the highest level for an 8-month period in the past 5 years.
In the first 8 months of 2025, inflation will be maintained within the Government's target range. Average inflation was 3.3%, down from the previous year's 4% and within the target range.
Gold stagnates thanks to expanded fiscal and monetary policies
Regarding prospects, ADB experts assess that the Vietnamese economy will remain strong in the 2025-2026 period, thanks to expanded fiscal and monetary policies.
US countervailing tariffs effective from August 7, 2025 20% for imports and 40% for shuttle goods could affect short-term growth, but economic stimulus policies are expected to reduce this impact.
"The growth forecast is revised up to 6.7% for 2025 and down to 6.0% for 2026, while the inflation forecast is slightly lower than the April report," the ADB report predicted.
