On August 21, 2026, FTSE Russell is expected to announce the official list of the FTSE Global Equity Index Series (FTSE GEIS) review in September 2026. This is a special review for the Vietnamese stock market before officially moving to the secondary Emerging Market group from September 21, 2026.
Yuanta Securities Company (SEC) believes that this event will expand access to Vietnamese stocks for international passive investment funds using the FTSE index as a basis for capital allocation.
According to Yuanta Securities Company, 27 Vietnamese stocks are likely to be added to the FTSE GEIS index sets, with a total estimated purchase value of about 1.5 billion USD when the entire roadmap is completed. The roadmap for increasing the proportion is expected to be implemented in 4 phases within a year.
The first phase takes effect on September 21, 2026 with a rate of 10%, equivalent to about 150 million USD. The second phase in March 2027 brings the accumulated proportion to 30%, with about 300 million USD disbursed. The remaining two phases in June and September 2027 have a scale of about 525 million USD, thereby completing the entire roadmap.
In addition, there are ETF funds and related index funds managing total assets of about 1,397 billion USD, of which the estimated capital allocated to Vietnam is about 1.54 billion USD.
Considering each stock, VIC is forecast to attract the largest amount of money, with a total purchase value of about 554 million USD, corresponding to a proportion of 36.95%. In the first phase of September alone, the buying force is estimated to reach more than 55 million USD.
Second place is VHM with a total expected purchase value of nearly 174 million USD, of which about 17.4 million USD may be disbursed in the first phase. Next is HPG with 85.5 million USD, VPB more than 56 million USD and MSN more than 55 million USD.
A series of other large-cap and highly liquid stocks are also on the forecast list. FPT may receive about 53.7 million USD, VCB nearly 52 million USD, VNM 48.5 million USD, SSI more than 39 million USD and STB more than 38 million USD. A total of 27 stocks in the forecast portfolio correspond to a total buying force of about 1.5 billion USD, of which about 150 million USD is expected to be realized in the first phase.
However, Yuanta Securities Company noted that the impact of upgraded cash flow needs to be viewed in a medium and long-term direction. In the short term, the 150 million USD of the first phase is not large enough to create a uniform impact on the entire market, but the impact may be more obvious in stocks with high proportion or low liquidity.
Large-cap stocks account for about 53% of the total purchase value, of which VIC and VHM alone account for nearly 49%. Considering the correlation between the amount of money expected to be purchased and current liquidity, MCH, VIC and VHM are the three stocks with the highest initial cash flow absorption time, which may be more clearly affected by supply and demand. In the medium term, about 1.35 billion USD remaining is expected to be disbursed through three phases until September 2027.
According to Yuanta Securities Company's assessment, this is the capital that has the potential to create a more noteworthy driving force for liquidity and foreign demand. Investors should monitor stocks that have both a large expected buying value and a significant cash flow absorption level compared to the average trading value, instead of just looking at the total amount of money bought in the entire period to increase the proportion.
Many experts also commented that the "buying before news" effect may appear in the coming sessions but is mainly selective in stocks that are likely to be included in FTSE GEIS, instead of creating strong upward momentum for the entire market. The reason is that the upgrade story has been confirmed by FTSE Russell since April and Vietnam will be officially included in the secondary emerging market group from September 21, 2026, so most expectations have been reflected before.
It is noteworthy that FTSE is implementing the inclusion of Vietnam in GEIS in many phases, of which the first phase in September 2026 is only equivalent to 10% of the potential investment ratio, so the impact of passive capital flows in the short term is likely to be positive but not too sudden.
