GDP growth forecasts continuously raised
In the past time, many international organizations have simultaneously raised Vietnam's economic growth forecast. Thanks to economic results exceeding expectations in the first half of the year, the momentum from AI continues to be positive and energy prices cool down, UOB Bank raised Vietnam's GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 8.5%, from 7% previously.
In the World Economic Outlook Update in July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised Vietnam's GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 7.5%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the 7.1% given in the April report.
In particular, in the economic assessment report at the end of July, Standard Chartered Bank raised its GDP growth forecast for Vietnam in 2026 to 9.5%. The bank expects this growth momentum to continue to be maintained in the coming year, with a GDP growth forecast for 2027 reaching 11%.
Mr. Tim Leelahaphan - Senior Economist in charge of Vietnam and Thailand, Standard Chartered Bank - said that the Vietnamese economy has shown strong resilience and adaptability in the first half of 2026, with growth exceeding expectations thanks to the recovery of the manufacturing, processing, manufacturing, service and investment industries, along with support from growth-promoting policies.
According to a representative of Standard Chartered, although global instability and inflationary pressure are still factors that need to be monitored, Vietnam enters the second half of the year from a solid position. Strong domestic demand, continuous investment in infrastructure and production capacity, along with the ongoing economic transformation process, will contribute to consolidating a more balanced and sustainable growth model, thereby supporting Vietnam's long-term development goals.
Foundation to help Vietnam raise growth forecast
Talking to Lao Dong Newspaper, Dr. Huynh Thanh Dien - lecturer at Nguyen Tat Thanh University - assessed that this is one of the strongest forecast adjustments ever. It is noteworthy that not only one organization but a series of international organizations have also raised their forecasts.
This shows that this is no longer a subjective assessment from Vietnam but an objective recognition of the international community for reform efforts. This consensus will also create more confidence for FDI enterprises. When the prospects are assessed positively, investors will boldly bring more capital into Vietnam" - Dr. Huynh Thanh Dien analyzed.
Regarding the bases for forecasting positive growth, Dr. Huynh Thanh Dien said that in the past 2 years, Vietnam has carried out very strong reforms. It can be clearly seen through the arrangement of administrative units, consolidation of the two-level local government apparatus, streamlining ministries and sectors; and at the same time promoting infrastructure planning, implementing many key transport projects with connectivity.
Vietnam is developing urban areas according to the TOD model, linking transportation with economic space restructuring. Metro will create operating centers around stations and underground space; while inter-regional routes form corridors connecting industrial parks, seaports, and logistics. If well planned, Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi can create a strong spillover effect to neighboring economic regions.
In addition, the amended Urban Development Law will grant more autonomy to large cities, allowing the application of special mechanisms. This will open up many new development spaces such as low-level economy, night economy, digital economy, green economy; and pilot new mechanisms for new fields.
The most important point is that Vietnam is transforming its growth model. We are restructuring existing economic sectors in the direction of relying on science and technology and innovation to improve productivity" - Dr. Huynh Thanh Dien pointed out.
Another driving force is the construction of the International Financial Center. If done well, this will be a gathering place for international capital flows. Foreign businesses can list to raise capital, while Vietnamese businesses also have more channels to access international capital sources.
