The stock market is having a series of positive trading days in early August with increasing sessions, green color spreading to many industry groups. However, the market's upward momentum is not convincing enough when the main contribution comes from the pair of large stocks of Vingroup, VIC and VHM, while cash flow also lacks the necessary explosion.
Closing the trading session on August 4, HOSE had 175 gainers and 140 losers, VN-Index increased by 14.39 points (+0.82%), to 1,777.23 points. Total trading volume reached nearly 687 million units, value of 18,143.6 billion VND, down nearly 11% in volume and 6% in value compared to yesterday's session.
Foreign investors' transactions are a plus point when net buying about 872 billion VND of shares across the market. On the buying side, VIC shares were bought the strongest by foreign investors on HOSE with a value of more than 438 billion VND. On the opposite side, VNM led the list of net sellers with 115 billion VND.
Two stocks VIC and VHM contributed the most to VN-Index with a total of more than 12 points, with VIC +2.4% up 210,000 VND and VHM +3.3% up 152,900 VND. Another stock in the group, VRE, had a strong increase session of +4.7% up 26,400 VND. Other bluechips with two bank codes HDB +2.7% up 26,700 VND and STB +3.64% up 74,100 VND are the most positive.
Investors are still expecting trends in the coming time, as historical data shows that this is the month when the market recovers in terms of liquidity. According to MBS statistics, the probability of the market increasing points in August is about 80%. In the last 6 years, VN-Index has increased in this month, with an average increase of 3.9% - the highest in the year.
Bank interest rate fluctuations are the macroeconomic factors that have the most impact on the trend and cycle of the Vietnamese stock market. The general level of interest rates is unlikely to decrease sharply in the near future. When the banking system solves the imbalance of capital sources and liquidity, interest rates will no longer be under pressure to increase and enter a stabilization phase. This, although not ensuring liquidity recovery, is a prerequisite for domestic investors to return to the market.
In the long term, stock market liquidity needs more sustainable foundations to reduce the risk of dependence on credit cycles and monetary policy.
According to the assessment of HSC Securities Company, the recovery momentum continues to be strengthened as cash flow spreads across many industry groups and foreign investors return to net buying. Technical signals reflect that the upward momentum is still improving.
In addition, July economic data also supported market sentiment. Inflation continued to cool down as the CPI index in July fell to 4.45% compared to the same period, lower than the State Bank's target of 4.5%.
The driving force of the manufacturing sector was strengthened when the PMI index increased to 52.9. This is the highest level since February, thanks to the increase in new orders, exports and jobs. Retail sales grew strongly by 14.5% compared to the same period, showing good resilience of domestic consumption.
However, securities companies all note that the 1,770 - 1,800 point zone is still an important technical resistance zone. The common point in the recommendations of securities companies is not to chase when VN-Index is approaching the resistance zone.
This is still a technical recovery after a period of deep decline, not enough basis to confirm a medium and long-term upward trend. Therefore, investors should maintain a reasonable proportion of stocks and avoid chasing when the index approaches a strong resistance zone.
