July stock market: Technical momentum is not enough to establish a bottom zone

Gia Miêu |

The VN-Index decreased by more than 124 points in July as the stock market context was under strong pressure from large-cap stocks.

Many investors have been able to "boat around" in today's trading session (July 31) on the stock market. After two strong gaining sessions recently, the market after opening for trading had a fairly strong increase to nearly 1,770 points.

However, the red color gradually expanded on the electronic board at the end of the morning session, in the context that the initial support forces, which were large bank stocks, all stagnated, as well as the bluechip group differentiated higher.

Selling orders appeared strongly in the second half of the afternoon session, especially during the closing price determination order matching session (ATC). There was a time when the VN-Index lost more than 30 points. A series of selling orders with huge volumes appeared in the group of pillar stocks, thereby creating pressure on the entire market.

And thanks to the bottom-fishing cash flow quickly pushing in, the index's decline was somewhat curbed. At the end of the session on July 31, VN-Index decreased by 8.88 points (0.51%) to 1,735.78 points. Compared to yesterday's session, market liquidity today decreased slightly with a trading value of 18,880 billion VND.

In today's session, reduced pressure partly came from the "turning around" move of foreign investors. After the previous net buying session, today foreign investors net sold VND 312 billion on the HoSE exchange.

At the end of the trading week, the VN-Index increased by 49.67 points, equivalent to +2.95% and ended the 4-week consecutive decline before that. Today is also the last session of July 2026 and in this month, the VN-Index decreased by more than 124 points from 1,860 points.

The most negative impact on the market in today's session was VIC stock when it took away 9.4 points from the VN-Index. In the opposite direction, VCB code was the code with the most positive impact when it contributed 5.2 points.

This unexpected reversal session after two quite strong recovery phases of the market has affected the portfolios of many investors. However, this is something that many experts have warned about the fact that the reversal signal has not been clearly confirmed. The VN-Index needs to overcome the resistance level of 1,760-1,780 points with high liquidity to confirm.

Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Director of Financial Investment Analysis Division of DG Capital, said that the recent recovery was technical and was significantly supported by positive information, rather than reflecting that the market has actually bottomed out.

The market's recovery is supported by a number of positive factors, in which the short-term liquidity of the banking system has clearly improved, reflected in the sharp decrease in overnight interest rates on the interbank market.

In addition, many business leaders registered to buy after the stock price adjusted deeply, contributing to supporting the psychology and strengthening investor confidence while the business results of listed companies continued to maintain growth momentum.

However, the above factors mainly support a short-term recovery, not enough to conclude that VN-Index has formed a reliable bottom.

The return of liquidity is an important condition to confirm the market bottom. Cash flow needs to be maintained stably in the following sessions, instead of just increasing sharply in a few recovery sessions. In addition, some macroeconomic signals that may help improve investor confidence also need to be monitored. The continued downward trend of inflation will also create more favorable conditions for market sentiment and the valuation level," Dr. Phuong said.

Gia Miêu
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