Over the past week, the VN-Index continued to accumulate, waiting for opportunities for buying power to create a breakthrough. It is noteworthy that selling pressure has decreased, especially from foreign investors, helping the index increase slightly. This development shows that the profit-taking mentality after the recent distribution series has been somewhat relieved, helping the market to balance again and creating a foundation for the next increase.
With a reassessment of selling pressure and improved investor sentiment, the VN-Index is facing the opportunity to conquer the 1,700-point mark in the short term. However, history shows that periods of reaching important psychological thresholds are often accompanied by strong fluctuations, requiring the sustainability of participating cash flow.
In previous cycles, the market often went through an 8-10% correction to consolidate the price base, thereby forming a new uptrend. Therefore, experts believe that the VN-Index may surpass the 1,700-point mark in the short term, but strong fluctuations are inevitable.
Another important indicator when the market is at a historical peak is the rate of margin of the entire securities industry that has not yet reached the risk threshold. past statistics show that when margin's outstanding debt of the entire system is approaching 135-1 40% of equity, the market often appears a strong correction or creates a peak. Currently, it is estimated that margin's outstanding debt is about 125-128%, meaning there is still room to support purchasing power for individual investors.
Regarding the market scenario in the new week, experts from DSC Securities Company believe that the market will establish a clearer and stronger trend. The key factor is that cash flow needs to remain stable with improved liquidity, instead of continuously decreasing as recently.
In the base scenario, the market may improve in the first sessions of the week and adjust to the end of the week around 1,660 points. The important support level is still 1,600 points; if it is penetrated, the VN-Index is at risk of entering a major correction in the short term.
According to DSC experts, in the second quarter of 2025, it will bring an explosive profit picture for listed companies, with a growth rate of 34.6% over the same period - the highest in 6 quarters. However, behind the impressive numbers are many worrying factors.
Most of the increase came from the non-financial group with an increase of 56.1%, but nearly 15% of profits came from unusual incomes such as revaluation of assets or exchange rate interest. Excluding this factor, core profits have actually increased by only 26.5% and have slowed down for two consecutive quarters.
Meanwhile, the banking group - which accounts for a large proportion in the VN-Index - continued to stagnate, when after-tax profit increased by only 17.8%, much lower than the average of the whole market. In the first half of the year, listed enterprises completed 50.8% of the annual plan, of which banks reached 49.5% and real estate reached only 27.9%. This shows that the profit foundation is still not solid enough to support big expectations.
"The market is currently leaning more towards expectations than the reality platform, increasing the risk of short-term adjustments. With this perspective, investors need to be cautious, prioritizing choosing stocks with good fundamentals and clear growth prospects, instead of following the general trend of the index," said analysts from DSC Securities Company.
Meanwhile, analysts at Kafi Securities Company said that with the weekend's decline, the process of going sideways to handle the resistance level of 1,700 points has not ended. VN-Index may recover from the support zone of 1,640 - 1,660 points to re-evaluate the mark of 1,680 - 1,690 points at the beginning of this week.
However, the risk of an adjustment is increasing as technical signals gradually move to a more cautious state. The scenario of expanding the adjustment zone to 1,600 points also needs to be noted if selling pressure continues to dominate during the recovery period. Investors should take advantage of the hoi spans to restructure their portfolios in a risk-reducing direction, while closely monitoring the developments of the leading group at the support levels to assess trends and find safe reversal points.
