Domestic cash flow is still the main driver of the stock market

Gia Miêu |

Domestic cash flow is forecast to continue to lead the stock market in the coming time when the "burden" of being taxed at 20% of income is removed.

The stock market has just had a flourishing trading session despite continuous fluctuations. The strong attraction from the VN30 group of stocks helps the VN-Index once again move to an all-time high.

VN-Index increased by nearly 15 points (+0.89%) at the highest closing price on September 4 at 1,696.29 points, thereby setting a new peak. The index is getting very close to the 1,700-point mark, a new historical peak for the Vietnamese stock market. The value of matched orders on HoSE reached about VND37,500 billion.

Foreign investors also accelerated net selling in today's session with a value of about VND819 billion in the whole market. On HOSE alone, foreign investors net sold about VND752 billion. Since the beginning of the year, foreign investors have net sold more than VND 77,000 billion on HoSE.

However, it is worth noting that the VN-Index has increased to more than 600 points since the counterpart tax shock in early April, despite the efforts of foreign investors to net sell. All thanks to internal resources, which are internal cash flow.

The strong return of large cash flow not only creates short-term excitement, but also opens up many potential opportunities for investors in the medium and long term. These opportunities are reflected through four outstanding aspects.

First, bluechips returned to the role of "locomotive". With large capitalization and lead, the group of banks, securities, steel, and oil and gas simultaneously broke out, helping the VN-Index increase on a record high liquidity basis. This is an important difference from the speculative waves that only focus on the penny, because bluechips have the ability to create a more sustainable price level.

Second, liquidity remains high. From the beginning of August until now, the average liquidity is around 47,000 - 50,000 billion VND/session, 30% higher than the period in June. This shows that large cash flows are really getting involved and are likely to sustain in the medium term.

Third, market valuation is still attractive. Many VN30 stocks are currently trading at a lower P/E than the regional average, creating room to attract medium and long-term capital flows.

Fourth, the macro environment is favorable. Credit growth in 6 months reached nearly 10%, interest rates remained low, monetary policy towards supporting growth.

The Ministry of Finance has also just abandoned the proposal to tax tax tax taxable income at 20% when transferring securities in the draft Law on Personal Income Tax (amended). This information is expected to have a positive impact on the psychology of individual investors, the main force that accounts for the largest proportion of daily transactions on the stock market.

In its report on the stock market assessment at the end of the year, VCB Securities Company (VCBS) commented that with the increase of VN-Index in July and August, the general index is trading at P/E 14.9x.

P/E is at an attractive level compared to the regional average (about 15.3x) and the 5-year average (about 14.4x), while the low interest rate level and credit growth increased sharply in the last months of the year, which is expected to continue to support abundant market liquidity and raise the P/E valuation level of industries to a new high level.

In the last months of 2025, VCBS forecasts that the VN Index will continue to aim to conquer a positive scenario at 1,838 points.

Sharing the same view, in a recent analysis report, Maybank Securities Company also maintained the target of VN-Index reaching 1,800 points by the end of 2025, with the main driving force coming from the financial and real estate groups, while exporting industries need more time to recover.

Gia Miêu
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