According to MSc. Nguyen Phuoc Tuyen - former Director of the Agricultural Extension Center of Dong Thap province - many domestic and international specialized data show that many countries are currently in a state of rice excess. Notably, this is not only happening in countries with rice exports, but also appearing in many countries that regularly import rice.
In India, the world's leading rice exporter, a rice surplus is forecast to reach over 40 million tons. Currently, this country is implementing a strategy to expand export markets.
Meanwhile, countries that regularly import rice such as the Philippines, Indonesia... are also in a surplus situation, or limiting imports.
In Indonesia, the Government's strong purchasing policy, along with reserves of up to 3 million tons, has created record inventories. Therefore, by the end of 2025, this country does not need to import rice.
As for the Philippines, not only issuing an order to temporarily suspend rice imports from September 1, 2025, the government of this country also issued Executive Order (EO) No. 100, establishing a national floor price mechanism to ensure that producers make enough profits to cover increasing production costs and risks due to climate change...
These fluctuations have greatly affected the domestic consumption of rice exporting countries, including Vietnam.
According to statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, as of October 15, 2025, the whole country exported over 7 million tons of rice, with a turnover of 3.588 billion USD. It is worth mentioning that this figure has a slight decrease (4.4%) in volume, but has a sharp decrease in turnover (nearly 22%) compared to the same period in 2024. This has affected domestic consumption capacity, directly affecting the profits of rice growers.
According to the Center for Agricultural and Environmental Information and Services, rice purchasing prices in many localities are showing signs of slowing down, even decreasing because businesses no longer continue to promote purchasing. While the price of IR50404 and OM6906 rice (dried) in Dong Thap stagnated at VND6,600/kg, in Can Tho City (old Hau Giang), this rice price continued to decrease by VND100 - 300/kg. In the context of the export market facing many potential difficulties, there will be no opportunity for rice purchase prices to increase again at the end of the year
