After a week of trading under pressure, the market recovered quite well. Statistics on trading on the HOSE floor last week showed that the VN-Index had 4 increasing sessions and 1 decreasing session. At the end of the trading week, the VN-Index increased by 16.58 points (+1.3%) to 1,287.18 points.
Liquidity on both exchanges this week decreased sharply compared to the previous trading week, with total trading value decreasing by 17.84% to VND76,353 billion.
Although liquidity decreased sharply, cash flow circulating through industry groups and large stocks maintained the market's upward momentum, helping the VN-Index return to the strong resistance zone of 1,280 - 1,300 points.
The stock market has gone 3/4 of the way. Investors are placing high expectations on the fourth quarter of 2024, which will bring better investment opportunities with positive supporting information.
According to VNDIRECT Securities analysis department (VNDIRECT Research), the market's profit outlook remains strong in the second half of 2024, thanks to the solid recovery of the Vietnamese economy and a low comparison base in the second half of 2023.
Banking and real estate are the two major contributors, accounting for more than 66% of the profit growth of companies listed on HOSE in 2024. While the banking sector's profit outlook remains positive thanks to improved credit demand, growth in the residential real estate sector has slowed down as some projects have not met the conditions to record profits this year, although sales have shown positive improvements in the first 8 months of 2024.
Currently, VN-Index is approaching the strong resistance zone around 1,300 points and profit-taking activities will certainly increase. Therefore, investors need to control their emotions and balance their portfolios, avoiding FOMO for stocks that have increased sharply. Compliance with discipline and principles of portfolio risk management should be a top priority. Investors should wait for the market to confirm the trend when testing the resistance zone of 1,300 points before opening new buying positions and increasing investment proportions.
Potential risks to VNDIRECT Research's forecast include geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East escalating into a regional war; More negative data from the US economy, raising concerns about a recession; Negative information from struggling businesses...
On the contrary, there is a lot of good information supporting the market's growth momentum such as the story of upgrading to emerging market status; liquidity support policies, monetary easing from the State Bank; stronger than expected business results in the third quarter of 2024...
Analysts at ABS Securities Company believe that the focus of the stock market in October will revolve around two major issues. The first is the laws expected to be passed at the 8th session of the 15th National Assembly. The high-speed railway project with an estimated budget of 67 billion USD may also be passed at this session, which will be a driving force for public investment in 2025.
Second, the outlook for Q3 business results of listed companies. ABS estimates that the after-tax profits of research companies could increase by 20.6% year-on-year in the second half of the year, higher than the 5.8% year-on-year increase achieved in the first half of 2024. Industries expected to have positive profit growth in Q3/2024 include banking, securities, oil and gas, chemicals - fertilizers, retail, shipping, IT and telecommunications, garments, food, etc.
From there, ABS experts commented that the stock market will continue to move towards surpassing the peak of 1,300 points and there is an expectation of growth potential at the end of the year. The analysis team proposed a trading scenario with a priority on new purchases in October.
