According to a new report released by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on December 11, Vietnam's economic growth forecast for 2024 has been raised to 6.4%, higher than the previously expected 6.0%, and for 2025 it is expected to reach 6.6%, up from 6.2%. These figures show a strong recovery of the Vietnamese economy, driven by key factors such as strong trade activities as exports of processed and manufactured goods continue to grow strongly.
ADB said that Vietnam is showing good adaptability to changes in the global supply chain, while effectively taking advantage of free trade agreements to expand export markets.
In the economic update report on Vietnam published on December 12, Standard Chartered Bank forecast Vietnam's GDP will grow strongly by 6.7% by 2025, with a growth in the first half of the year reaching 7.5% compared to the same period last year and at 6.1% in the second half of the year.
This outlook is underpinned by exports rising 14.9% year-on-year in the first 10 months of 2024, while imports increased 16.8%; with the electronics import-export sector continuing to recover.
The bank said that the solid growth of the manufacturing sector and appropriate monetary policy also contributed to the economic recovery since the beginning of the year.
At the same time, foreign investment continued to increase, as evidenced by strong FDI inflows. Disbursed FDI increased by 8.8% year-on-year while committed FDI increased by 1.9% over the same period. Manufacturing accounted for 62.6% of total committed FDI during the period, while real estate accounted for 19.0%, an increase over the same period last year.
Although the outlook for Vietnam's economy in 2025 is forecast to be positive, Standard Chartered also noted that Vietnam needs to be cautious.
“We expect the State Bank of Vietnam to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points in the second quarter of 2025. The government’s expectations of strong economic growth are supporting the current low interest rates,” said Tim Leelahaphan, economist for Thailand and Vietnam at Standard Chartered.
Inflation may pick up again starting from Q2/2025; therefore, Standard Chartered expects interest rates to return to normal in Q2.
“The Fed’s actions will also be a key factor influencing the monetary policy decisions of the State Bank of Vietnam. Lower USD interest rates could help reduce capital outflows, while a sustained trade surplus and strong foreign exchange earnings from tourism will support the VND; however, low import reserves remain a challenge,” said Tim Leelahaphan.
At the National Conference held on the morning of December 1, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh reported on the main contents of the socio-economic situation in 2024 and solutions to accelerate socio-economic development in 2025.
The Prime Minister pointed out a number of key targets, including GDP growth of about 6.5-7%. He especially emphasized the need to prioritize growth, striving for GDP growth of about 8% to create momentum, force, and spirit to implement the plan for 2026 and the entire 2021-2030 period.
