Sharing at the 3rd Vietnam Financial Advisors' Summit - 2025 (VWAS), Dr. Can Van Luc, Chief Economist of BIDV, Member of the Prime Minister's Policy Advisory Council, said that there are 6 factors affecting the real estate market this year.
Accordingly, world economic growth in 2025-2026 slowed down, but did not decline; Vietnam's economy in 2025-2026 grew quite strongly, creating a premise to enter a "new era" despite many difficulties and challenges.
However, we are still maintaining macroeconomic stability, inflation is increasing under control; interest rates in Vietnam remain low; exchange rates and bad debts increase under control; budget deficits, public debt, foreign debt, government repayment obligations... are within the threshold allowed by the National Assembly;
In addition, institutional breakthroughs, revolution in streamlining the organization - apparatus, merging provinces - cities..., serve as a basis and an important driving force to enter the new era.
He shared that, in terms of mechanisms, the most notable thing recently at the 9th National Assembly session was the 34 laws and 34 resolutions passed, including those related to land, construction and real estate.
The issue of public investment and infrastructure development is being promoted; next, financial obligations have passed the most difficult period; access to capital is maintained.
According to the State Bank's report, by July 31, 2025, outstanding real estate credit reached more than VND 4.1 million billion, an increase of 17% compared to the end of 2024, accounting for 23.68% of total outstanding loans in the economy. Of which, outstanding loans for real estate businesses reached VND 1.79 million billion (up 23.87%), outstanding loans for consumption associated with real estate reached VND 2.28 million billion (up 12.4%).
The factor of unbalanced supply and demand and high real estate prices is also a matter of concern. Dr. Luc shared Numbio statistics showing that apartment prices compared to the average income of households in Vietnam in 2023 was 23.5 years, by 2024 they will increase to 23.7 years, and in 2025 they will increase to 25.8 years.
Meanwhile, compared to countries in the region such as Singapore, apartment prices compared to the number of years are 23.2 years, Thailand is 25.2 years,...
Vietnam's ranking compared to more than 100 countries, based on the number of years of accumulating income needed to buy a house, is 9th, down from 14th in 2023. The lower the rating, the more difficult it is for people to access housing.
According to batdongsan.com.vn, in the period from 2019 - 2024, Vietnam's real estate prices will increase by 59% compared to the US by 54%, Australia by 49%, Japan by 41%, Singapore by 37%.
Dr. Luc said that resources and real estate this year have increased, but the average segment is not much. "Apartment transactions have therefore not increased, while land transactions have increased, showing that investors have great expectations for the potential of land" - Dr. Luc said.
Dr. Luc shared that in the new Ho Chi Minh City after the merger, in the first 8 months of the year, the supply of apartments with about 28,000 units increased sharply, the absorption rate increased 3 times. Apartment prices in this city increased more slowly than in Hanoi, increasing by only about 15% while Hanoi apartment prices increased nearly double.
According to BIDV Economics School experts, solutions to stabilize housing prices need to be carefully calculated.
It is necessary to speed up the improvement of institutions and legal frameworks; pay attention to the implementation stage; Build a database of land and real estate; Take specific measures to handle 6 shortcomings that cause real estate prices to increase rapidly; Pay attention to green transformation and digital transformation in XD and real estate.
Meanwhile, for construction and real estate enterprises, it is necessary to continue to restructure operations; pay attention to controlling cash flow and debt risks; controlling investment risks spread...; Diversifying capital and products; bringing real estate prices to a more reasonable level; Proactively transforming digital, green transformation in XD and real estate; contributing to building a database, land data, real estate...; Adapting and improving the capacity to manage enterprises and commercial banks; standardizing processes, products and personnel according to the newly effective Laws (Land, Housing, Real Estate Business Law... amended).
