USD/VND exchange rate in 2025 is under pressure
According to VCBS Securities Company, some factors are putting pressure on USD/VND exchange rate in 2025. DXY - Measurement of the strength of the USD compared to the currency basket - can continue to maintain at a level at a level level. high because the labor market and the US service sector are still active. This makes the US Federal Reserve (FED) delayed the cutting interest rate cut, resulting in stronger USDs than many other currencies, including VND.
In addition, geopolitical conflicts continue to increase the need to hold safe shelter. In this context, USD can become the first choice of investors, strengthening the position of this currency in the global financial market.
Facing the exchange rate pressure, VCBS forecasts that VND will lose about 3% compared to USD in 2025. international.
Rong Viet Securities Company (VDSC) offers a more cautious perspective when identifying the USD/VND exchange rate will fluctuate in the amplitude +/- 5% depending on many factors, including foreign exchange reserves, supply and demand of domestic currency and US tariff policies for Vietnam.
VDSC stated the basic scenario, of which the exchange rate at the end of 2025 could be at 26,200 VND/USD if the macro factors were expected.
Remittances and trade help balance exchange rate pressure?
Despite many impacts, VCBS's research team also pointed out a number of positive factors that help reduce exchange rate pressure. One of them is the coherent capital flow, which is expected to maintain over 13 billion USD as in the last three years. In addition, surplus trade balance also contributes to stabilizing the foreign exchange market, especially when large economies show signs of recovery, helping to promote Vietnam's exports.
In addition, with the trend of loosening monetary policies of central banks in the world, capital flows can continue to find Vietnam - the country is assessed to have a stable macroeconomic. This will be an important fulcrum to help the State Bank flexibly manage exchange rate policy.
The SBV will flexibly operate to control the exchange rate
Deputy Governor of the State Bank (SBV) Dao Minh Tu said that in 2025, there were many uncertainties and unpredictable factors, which could put pressure on the exchange rate as well as the foreign currency market. Therefore, the SBV will closely monitor market movements to manage the exchange rate flexibly, in accordance with the actual situation.
The main goal of the State Bank is to control inflation, stabilize macroeconomic and support businesses in the context of many fluctuations. The synchronous coordination between monetary policy tools will be the key to keeping the foreign exchange market stabilizing, avoiding strong fluctuations affecting businesses and the economy.
In short, USD can maintain strength, especially if the Fed delays the interest rate cuts. VND may discount about 3% in 2025, according to VCBS.
The exchange rate may increase to 26,200 VND/USD or higher if the US imposes taxes on Vietnamese goods, according to VDSC. Remittance, surplus trade balance is a bright spot that helps reduce exchange rate pressure.
The SBV will closely monitor the market for flexible management policies, avoiding strong fluctuations.
