Speaking to the press at the regular Government press conference in January 2025 on the afternoon of February 5, Permanent Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) Dao Minh Tu said that in order to achieve the target of 8% GDP growth in 2025, many policies and solutions are required to be synchronous in all fields.
In the banking sector, if you want growth, you need investment, and if you want investment, you need capital to ensure development. The growth rate of over 8% towards 10% by 2025 is a very impressive number set by the Government.
In many years, such as in 2023, GDP grew by nearly 7%, credit growth was at 14.55%. In 2024, GDP grew by 7.09%, credit growth was 15.08%. On average, more than 2% credit growth will help increase GDP growth by 1%.
This year, the State Bank of Vietnam targets credit growth of about 16% for the economic growth target of 8%. If economic growth reaches 10%, credit growth must be at 18-20%.
The issue is how to have enough capital to serve economic growth, especially in the context that medium and long-term capital mobilization channels such as stocks and bonds still have issues that need to be strengthened. Responsibility will be placed heavily on monetary and credit policies in 2025.
Mr. Dao Minh Tu said that by the end of 2023, the total outstanding debt will be about 13.4 million billion VND, and by the end of 2024, it will be 15.5 million billion VND. Thus, in 2024 alone, we will add about 2.1 million billion VND to the economy in outstanding debt. In total, in 2024, the loan turnover will be 23 million billion VND, the debt collection turnover will be 21 million billion VND to achieve 7.09% GDP growth.
Regarding the monetary policy orientation for the 8% growth target, it is necessary to control inflation and stabilize the value of money. Next, it is necessary to actively support growth and ensure major balances of the economy. With this goal, monetary policy will continue to be operated flexibly and closely, in accordance with fiscal policy, import-export policy, and trade policy.
"In 2025, we ask ourselves: What should we do to achieve a number similar to this growth rate? In managing monetary policy, the State Bank will first and foremost implement the viewpoint of how to achieve the target, control inflation, stabilize the value of money; actively support economic growth and ensure the major balance of the economy.
With that viewpoint and goal, along with previous experiences and lessons, this year's monetary policy will continue to be flexible, tight and consistent with fiscal policy as well as other macroeconomic policies such as import-export policy and trade policy," the Standing Deputy Governor of the State Bank shared.
According to Mr. Dao Minh Tu, those are general management methods and approaches, and more specifically, the following tasks and solutions must be ensured:
Ensuring results for the economy and for traders. These results are to ensure capital sources for the economy on the basis of promoting mobilized capital and idle capital for the economy from businesses and people. And having a reasonable interest rate policy to mobilize this capital.
In case investment capital is needed to meet demand, the State Bank will use its operating tools to provide capital, re-capitalize or other appropriate forms through monetary market operations.
Continue to operate interest rates stably to ensure that they are consistent with the general interest rates of the economy as well as with other requirements in the macro-relationship of other macroeconomic indicators. Direct commercial banks to continue to reduce interest rates by saving their costs, applying technology to reduce costs, and supporting interest rates for businesses and people.
"In managing the credit limit, we set it at 16% but it can be higher if inflation and macroeconomic indicators are still controlled, and the growth target is achieved. The method of managing this limit has been innovated in 2024 and will continue to innovate and create favorable conditions and proactiveness for commercial banks in 2025. If we actively lend to the right subjects and promote capital sources as well as ensure the safety and soundness of the Bank, the initiative will be enhanced. The State Bank will control and ensure the overall credit growth of the economy," said Mr. Dao Minh Tu.
