VNDIRECT attended a credit growth in 2025 to 13-14%, supported by GDP growth at 7.3%, thereby promoting business confidence, investment and household income increased.
Credit demand in 2025 will mainly come from enterprises in the field of commerce, production and construction. Therefore, banks have strengths in these areas, such as HDB, CTG, MBB and VCB, are expected to achieve impressive credit growth and financial results. Among these banks, HDB has the lowest LDR ratio, bringing a large room to promote credit growth in 2025 without raising deposit rates.
Public investment will be the main motivation to promote credit growth in 2025. Banks lending to customer groups are state -owned enterprises, construction and public investment companies, such as MBB, CTG and VCB, will have, will have Outstanding credit growth next year.
In addition to credit growth, capital increase is the second point for banking stocks in 2025. Large enterprises participate in key public investment projects. Small, less reputation banks will be more difficult to increase capital and sponsor loans with high profit margins. Some businesses plan to increase capital in 2025 including VCB, BID, MBB.
Interest rates are expected to continue the trend of increasing this year. VNDIRECT Projecting deposit interest rates will increase by 50-100 basic points by 2025, due to the high-term interbank interest rate maintained at a high level and the demand for capital increases to support credit growth in the context of the rate. High LDR.
The loan interest rate is expected to increase, which will put pressure on credit growth but not significant, because the interest rate is still expected lower than the normal growth stages of the industry and the economy and the economy. .
Nims of the whole industry will increase to 3.52% by 2025 (the NIM of stocks in our monitoring portfolio reaches 3.9%) thanks to the increase in property yield (AI). Capital fee (COF). Expected capital costs will increase by 25-50 basic points due to higher deposit interest rates, but banks can offset by transferring costs to borrowers and increasing the proportion of long-term loans, thanks to needs. Business expansion, public investment and real estate demand are recovering.
The loan yield is expected to increase to an average of ~ 8.3%/year (for short -term loans) with the SBV scenario without increasing the operating interest rates.
VNDirect also expects the quality of assets will improve in 2025, with the bad debt ratio of banks in the monitoring list decreased to 2.0%. The main reasons include: The speed of forming bad debts has slowed down from Q3/24, the implementation of Circular 53, expectation of credit growth reaches 13%-14%, and economic recovery. The liquidation of collateral will accelerate from the second half of 2025 when the bad debts are handled by deletion of debt will contribute to reducing the price of these assets.
VNDIRECT expects the State Bank will not extend Circular 02, to avoid bringing negative signals to the market.
"We expect the State Bank to terminate Circular 02 and/or replace it with another circular, because the extension of Circular 02 can bring negative signals to the market such as: Debt risk. Bads still persist, although banks have made efforts to resolve through increasing debt removal and banks have not fully established provisions (100%) for these restructuring loans " - experts of VNDIRECT information.
