How do you assess Vietnam's economic growth picture in 2024? Which sectors are bright spots in the economy?
- In the last months of 2024, Vietnam's economy will still maintain positive growth momentum. On the demand side, trade will continue to be the economic support. In 2024, the total import and export turnover of goods will reach nearly 800 billion USD, an increase of 15% over the same period last year.
Assessing the socio-economic situation in 2024, Politburo member and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh also recently stated that the total import-export turnover is expected to reach 800 billion USD for the whole year, with many strategic export products of Vietnam achieving an export value of over 10 billion USD.
Domestic consumption is recovering with total retail sales of goods and consumer services revenue increasing by 8.5% over the same period last year. Realized FDI capital increased by 8.8% over the same period last year to 19.58 billion USD. Private investment growth accelerated, contributing 3.89% to the growth of total social investment capital in the third quarter, 2-3 times higher than the other two sectors.
On the supply side, the industrial production index is estimated to have increased by 8.3% over the same period last year, while the manufacturing sector increased by 9.6% for the 10 months as a whole. The PMI returned to the 50-point level in October and November after a decline caused by Typhoon Yagi in September.
Is the proposed GDP growth target for 2025 feasible, sir?
- In my opinion, the GDP growth target that the National Assembly approved at the last session is completely feasible. Growth drivers such as public investment, private investment and import-export activities are all maintaining strong growth momentum.
On the international front, the global economy is gradually recovering from the impacts of the pandemic and geopolitical conflicts. Consumer demand and investment from major trading partners such as the United States, the EU and China are expected to positively support Vietnam's exports.
At the same time, the weakening of the USD in the context of the US Federal Reserve (FED) continuously reducing interest rates - from 50 basis points in September and another 25 basis points in November, bringing interest rates down to 4.5-4.75% - will help stabilize the macro economy and create favorable conditions for Vietnam's exports.
Domestically, the Government has shown strong determination to promote growth drivers. Disbursement of public investment capital, especially for key national projects, will be accelerated from the beginning of the year. The source of increased budget revenue in 2024 will be prioritized for important projects such as the Eastern North-South Expressway.
Lending interest rates will continue to decrease to support business recovery, while credit growth remains above 15%, focusing on priority areas and production and business. Budget revenue in 2024 is expected to be about 10% higher than the previous year, and the Government is also committed to maximizing savings on regular expenditures to increase resources for economic development goals.
What opportunities and economic growth drivers can we exploit in 2025?
- During the question-and-answer session before the National Assembly on November 13, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh affirmed the strong growth target, emphasizing Vietnam's three traditional growth drivers: investment, consumption, and then export.
I think the Government has clearly realized that in the remaining period of this term (until 2025) and in the next term, it is necessary to focus on strongly promoting these growth drivers, especially focusing on investment. In particular, promoting public investment will be a solid foundation for growth.
Promoting private investment will play an important role in creating momentum for sustainable economic development. To promote private investment, in the context of difficulties and limitations in economic stimulus packages, the Government needs to implement price stabilization programs, promote high-quality Vietnamese goods and meet international standards. Policies to support private enterprises need to be substantial, both promoting supply and supporting demand, helping to reduce product costs and increase domestic value in exports.
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