Please tell us your prediction for the upcoming cold spell in the North. How is this year's cold spell different from last year's?
- Overall, it can be said that the winter of 2023-2024 is a warm winter, with average temperatures higher than the multi-year average (MTNN) in many areas. In particular, in the Northern region, according to our assessment, the influence of El Nino will cause the temperature to increase higher than many years. However, severe cold may occur later than in the winter of 2022-2023.
Previously, in 2022-2023, the first severe cold spell occurred at the end of December, equivalent to the average. However, in the winter of 2023-2024, the severe cold spell came later. Our forecast is that severe cold will appear around January. However, this severe cold spell will not last long and will not occur widely.
What do experts think about the frequency of cold air activity in the last months of 2023?
- Normally, in terms of climate, the last months of the year are the main winter months, cold air waves operate with increasing frequency. Specifically, in the last days of November and December 2023, cold air continues to increase in frequency and intensity. In particular, the last 10 days of November 2023 are more active than the average, after that, there is a high possibility that cold air waves tend to operate weaker than the average in the same period.
In recent days, frost has continuously appeared on Fansipan peak. Could you please explain this phenomenon?
- The activity of cold air masses is continuously strengthened, shifting eastward with strong westerly winds carrying a lot of moisture to the mountainous provinces. Interspersed with days of high-altitude divergence, causing little cloudiness at night. Strong heat radiation at night combined with days of high humidity has caused frost in recent days.
With the weather pattern affected by El Nino like this year, will there be ice and snow in the northern mountainous provinces, sir?
- This winter, the cold air is weaker than the average, and the temperature is higher than the average. However, there is a possibility of strong cold air waves in the winter months. Therefore, we predict that this winter, there is still a possibility of ice and snow on high mountain peaks, but it will not last long and spread widely. In fact, usually in El Nino years, the temperature in our country is higher than the average.
However, in the winter months, severe cold still occurs, and in some years the temperature even drops very low, for example, the cold spell in January 2016 (the year El Nino was very active), many places recorded the lowest temperature in more than 40 years and snow and ice also occurred widely in the mountainous provinces of the North and the North Central region.
Thank you very much!
