Storm No. 15 is said to have a relatively complex path due to interaction with many types. This afternoon, November 26, Mr. Hoang Phuc Lam - Deputy Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, Department of Hydro-Meteorology gave the latest comments on this storm.
Sir, storm No. 15 tends to strengthen rapidly after entering the East Sea, is it forecasted that the storm will continue to strengthen or not?
- Last night, November 25, Typhoon Koto entered the East Sea and became the 15th storm of 2025. This afternoon, November 26, the storm is at level 10. Thus, compared to last night, it has strengthened to 2 levels and the storm is forecast to continue to strengthen. In the next 24 to 48 hours, the storm will increase to level 11 and in the first 24 hours it will still move quite quickly to the west.
Currently, due to the main influence of the subtropical high pressure, the storm is moving relatively steadily in the west-northwest direction and will still maintain a speed of 20 - 25km/h for 24 hours. After that, the process of the storm moving away from the affected area of the subtropical high pressure in the eastern Philippines as well as the subtropical high pressure is in the process of weakening, so the storm will move more slowly in the next 48 hours.
Especially on the night of November 27, there will be a part of the cold air strengthening. This is not a favorable situation for the development of the storm, leading to a high possibility of the storm weakening. Therefore, from November 29 onwards, the storm is likely to weaken, decreasing to level 9, level 10 on November 30 and December 1. Another notable thing is that when the storm moves into the 112 - 113 route, it moves north. The temperature of the sea surface is colder, the cold air is strengthened, causing the pressure difference to increase, meaning that the storm may still maintain its strong intensity in the early stages when it first approaches the cold air.
When the cold air enters the storm's circulation, the storm will weaken. That is the reason why from around the evening and night of November 29 onwards, the storm began to show signs of weakening.
What is the forecast for the next scenario of storm No. 15, which areas will be affected by wind and heavy rain, sir?
- We are assessing two scenarios for the next developments of the current storm. The first scenario is that the storm is likely to move upward in a north-northwest direction, along the coast of the South Central provinces and with a probability of about 75 to 80%, which is quite high. With this option, the possibility of affecting the mainland with winds of level 6 or higher is relatively low. The wind may be around level 4 - 5.
The area from Da Nang to Lam Dong is likely to experience a period of rain in the first days of December 2025, focusing on coastal areas. We believe that the rain is not too heavy, there may be moderate rain, that is, less than 50 mm within a day, but coastal areas will still have heavy rain, that is, from 50 - 100 mm within a day. That is the most likely impact plan.
A worse scenario for the weather in the South Central Coast is that the storm does not move north, does not slide along the South Central Coast but goes straight to the shore. With this scenario, the storm will cause strong winds above level 6 inland. This is a current case with a probability of about 20 to 25%.
With this option, the storm will directly affect the mainland, causing winds above level 6 and rain. We predict that according to this plan, the rain will be 100 - 250 mm in the coastal area from Da Nang to Lam Dong from November 29 to December 1. We will closely monitor the next developments of the storm as well as the factors influencing the storm's trajectory and intensity to update in the following bulletins.
What are the characteristics to note about this storm up to now, sir?
- There is a clear characteristic that coastal waters will be affected. Ship in the dangerous area must move far from affected areas to avoid being affected by strong winds above level 6. Second, the impact of this storm will be relatively long, this is a slow-growing storm; so monitoring developments and impacts will continue until early December.
Sincerely thank you!
