March 3, 2026 - The Institute of Strategy, Policy on Agriculture and Environment (ISPAE) in collaboration with the University of Economics and Technology of Industry (UNETI), Dragon Capital Fund and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), UNEP-WCMC and the University of Minnesota successfully organized the technical training workshop "Applying the GTAP-InVEST model in spatial planning and integrated development".
The workshop is within the framework of the Nature Transition Support Program (NTSP) - a global initiative funded by the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Development (DEFRA) through the Global Center for Climate Biodiversity (GCBC).
NTSP aims to solve the core challenge: balancing rapid economic growth with national ecological limits. Vietnam currently records an ecological capacity deficit of about -220%, showing that resource consumption far exceeds natural regeneration capacity.
At the workshop, experts introduced the GTAP-InVEST economic-ecological integration model, a platform connecting the Overall Balance (CGE) model with space-based ecosystem service maps. According to a representative of the research group from the University of Minnesota, this tool creates a "closed feedback loop", in which natural degradation is quantified into a productivity shock in the economic model.
Simulation results show that if the current trend of growth scenario (BAU) continues, potential GDP in 2030 may decline by 26% due to ecosystem losses. Conversely, the "Green Transition" scenario with smart investment in nature brings a higher and more sustainable long-term growth trajectory.
The multi-party discussion session focused on the ability to integrate model results into strategic planning processes such as the National Master Plan, land use planning and marine space planning (Green Book 2.0). Delegates emphasized the importance of integrating Natural Capital Accounting, developing the domestic carbon market and the biodiversity credit mechanism to internalize ecosystem value in investment decisions.
The implementation of NTSP in Vietnam demonstrates a strong commitment to a positive growth model with nature, based on policy co-creation and multi-center governance. Through a quantitative evidence platform, the program aims to restructure the economic-biosphere relationship, ensuring that the goal of becoming a high-income country by 2045 is firmly anchored in long-term ecological stability.
