The Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change has issued a climate forecast for the 3-month period (from November 2025 to January 2026) based on climate change analysis, the Institute's statistical model, and forecast bulletins from major climate centers around the world.
The reporter had an interview with Dr. Truong Ba Kien, Deputy Director of the Center for Meteorological and Climate Research - Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change - about the most notable weather features in the above period.
Sir, has ENSO activity shifted to La Nina state?
- Currently, atmospheric and ocean conditions reflect ENSO being in a La Nina state. The La Nina state is forecast to last for 3 months from November 2025 to January 2026 with a probability of about 60 - 70%.
After storm No. 14 Fung-wong, it is forecasted that from now until the end of the year, there will be more storms/tropical depressions active in the East Sea, sir?
- In the 3 months from November 2025 to January 2026, the number of tropical cyclones active in the East Sea and affecting Vietnam (especially the Central region) is likely to be approximately equal to or higher than the average of many years. According to the average data of many years in the period from November of the previous year to January of the following year, there will be about 2 - 3 storms or tropical depressions in the East Sea and 1 - 2 storms affecting Vietnam.
After storm No. 13 and storm No. 14 in the East Sea in November 2025, it is forecasted that there will be about 1-2 storms or tropical depressions in the East Sea from now until January 2026.
Sir, since the beginning of 2025, there have been 19 storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea. What is your assessment of the reason for the stronger increase in storm activity this year than the average of many years?
- Right from the beginning of the year, the Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change has assessed that the number and intensity of storms active in the East Sea tend to be higher than the average of many years.
ENSO's conditions leaning towards the cold phase, then shifting to La Nina state, and the trend of increased sea surface temperatures due to climate change are two main reasons for storm activity to become more vibrant.
Firstly, ENSO is in a neutral state leaning towards the cold phase and La Nina (usually associated with increased storms) appears again at the end of the year. Therefore, the number of storms in the East Sea has been higher than the average of many years, originally only about 12 - 13 storms/tropical depressions, of which 6 - 7 directly affect Vietnam.
In addition, global climate change is causing sea surface temperatures to increase, while increasing the amount of moisture in the atmosphere, providing more fuel for storms. Many recent studies have also shown that the rate of strong storms and super typhoons has tended to increase significantly in the past few decades.
In the next 3 months, along with stronger northeast monsoon activities, what is the forecast for rainfall trends, sir?
- In the 3 months from November 2025 to January 2026, total rainfall is likely to be lower to approximately the average of many years in the North; approximately to higher than the average of many years in the area from Thanh Hoa to Hue city and the Central Highlands; higher than the average of many years in the South Central Coast and the South. It is necessary to be on guard against heavy rains causing serious flooding in the Central region.
Sincerely thank you!
