Talking to Lao Dong Newspaper, Mr. Nguyen Manh Hung - Head of Construction and Irrigation Management Department - Department of Management and Construction of Irrigation Works (Ministry of Agriculture and Environment) said that early forecasting and building water source scenarios to serve agricultural production by region and crop is a key factor to minimize risks.
Sir, how do you assess the current situation of water resources serving agricultural production?
- From the beginning of the year to now, the water source situation serving agricultural production in general is still within the control of the irrigation system. Many irrigation reservoirs are having relatively positive capacity compared to the average of many years.
Specifically, the Northern region currently reaches about 65.4% of designed capacity, about 7% higher than the multi-year average. North Central region reaches about 54%, 3% higher than the multi-year average; South Central Coast reaches 58%, also about 3% higher. Southeast region reaches 49.3%, 10.5% higher than the multi-year average. These are positive signals, creating conditions for localities to be more proactive in water supply management.
However, the water source has a clear differentiation between regions, basins and each project. Some places have relatively good reservoirs, but there are also places that depend heavily on rain, small ponds and lakes, or are far from irrigation works, so there is still a risk of local water shortage.
Which areas need to be closely monitored in the Summer-Autumn 2026 crop, sir?
- Currently, only the North Central region and the South Central coast are still in the dry season and will continue to last until August and September, so the water source here mainly depends on the irrigation project.
The Summer-Autumn crop is usually the time when the water demand for production increases, while prolonged hot weather can cause water sources to decline rapidly. According to current assessments, North Central Vietnam is an area that needs to be closely monitored, especially in Thanh Hoa, Nghe An, Quang Tri. It is expected that about 5,200-8,200 hectares of cultivated land in this area are at risk of being affected by drought and water shortage.
In the South Central Coast, some projects also need to adjust production plans to suit water supply capacity. The total cultivated area at risk of being affected is about more than 3,300 hectares, concentrated in Quang Ngai, Khanh Hoa, Dak Lak and Da Nang. Da Nang is also affected by saltwater intrusion on the Vinh Dien River.
Sir, in the context of El Nino being forecast to gradually increase, how can this factor affect water sources serving agricultural production?
- Currently, we cannot accurately confirm the extent of El Nino's impact on water sources serving agricultural production. The actual impact depends greatly on the developments and total rainfall in the 2026 rainy season, the amount of water stored in reservoirs, as well as the flow to production areas, especially the Mekong Delta region.
It is worth noting that if there is a shortage of rain and reservoirs do not store enough water before the dry season, the risk of drought, water shortage, and saltwater intrusion in the 2026-2027 dry season will increase. Therefore, instead of just waiting for weather developments, the irrigation sector is proactively building water source scenarios for each region, each province and each production season and is strengthening the implementation of "pre-disaster" actions to increase proactiveness in preventing and combating drought and saltwater intrusion, especially forecasting and storing water from the rainy season,...
On that basis, the locality can adjust the planting plan early, arrange a crop schedule suitable to the water supply capacity from irrigation works and prioritize water supply to priority subjects such as living, animal husbandry, perennial crops, etc. when drought and water shortage occur. This is an proactive approach to minimize risks, especially for areas that are often under pressure of water shortage at the end of the crop or during the dry season.
So how is the water source forecasting work being implemented to support the locality?
- We determine that water source forecasting is a continuous task that needs to be done, not just a general forecast for the whole region, but must build specific scenarios for each province, each irrigation system for each production season. The scenario is built based on rain forecasts, the amount of water stored in the reservoir at the beginning of the season, the water supply capacity of each system and the level of drought and water shortage risk.
From those scenarios, the locality has a basis to decide on the sowing schedule, planting area, crop structure and water distribution plan. Where water is sufficient, normal production is organized. Where water sources are not guaranteed, it is necessary to extend, postpone the crop season or switch to crops that use less water.
This approach helps directing and operating work shift from passive response to proactive prevention. This is also a very important requirement in the context of agricultural production increasingly being greatly affected by weather and water sources fluctuations.
Thank you for the useful information!
