The 2025 storm season is about to begin and early information on storm developments is of interest to the people. The reporter had an interview with Associate Professor, Dr. Mai Van Khiem - Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting to give an initial forecast on the trend of the storm season.
Sir, the ENSO forecast is an important tool to give early warning signals about the storm season. So how is the forecast for ENSO developments in the coming months?
- Currently, the ENSO phenomenon is in neutral conditions. From May to July 2025, ENSO is likely to maintain a neutral state with a probability of 70 - 90%. From August to October 2025, the ENSO phenomenon is likely to continue to remain neutral with a probability of 55 - 65%. Many types of natural disasters are forecast to be at an average level compared to many years. However, in neutral years, there is still a possibility of extreme natural disasters.
So what is the early assessment of the trend of this year's storm season? Can you tell us the forecast of when the storm will start and how many storms can affect the mainland?
- It is still early to make accurate and certain forecasts for the entire 2025 hurricane season. Initial assessment is that the number of storms and tropical depressions this year operating in the East Sea and affecting our mainland is likely to be approximately the same as the average of many years.
That is, about 11 - 13 storms and tropical depressions are active in the East Sea, and about 5 - 6 of them can directly affect our mainland.
The storm could be active in the months of the monsoon season. The first storm could form in the Northwest Pacific from around the second half of May and early June. However, the probability of early storms is not high.
In 2024, the number of strong storms will increase globally and in Vietnam. Is there a risk of strong storms appearing in 2025, sir?
- In terms of trend, the risk of strong and very strong storms (storm above level 12) still exists. Because 2025 is still considered a hot year and the sea surface temperature in the oceans is still very high. This is one of the unfavorable factors that can lead to the formation of strong storms.
Of course, whether or not a strong storm will form depends not only on the warming factor of the ocean surface but also on the combination of many different forms (for example, low-level convergence, southwest monsoon and high-altitude circulations...).
Although the storm season has not officially started, there have been fake storm forecasts. What recommendations do you have on this issue?
- Currently, we are forecasting the weather trend for the season and month. However, to predict whether or not there will be a storm or not, and how the storm will affect, the most modern technologies of the present from the international and Vietnam all make reliable forecasts about 3 - 5 days in advance. Therefore, people should monitor official information from the meteorological agency on storm forecasts.
Sincerely thank you!
