The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has forecast the weather trend for the seasonal season (from July 2026 - December 2026). Among them, one of the notable information is the forecast of hot sun and rainy season this year.
The temperature from now until the end of the year is higher than average
Regarding the temperature trend, according to Mr. Nguyen Duc Hoa - Deputy Head of the Climate Forecasting Department, National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, from July 2026 - September 2026, the average temperature nationwide is generally 0.5-1.5 degrees Celsius higher than the multi-year average of the same period.
From now until September 2026, hot weather will continue to occur and the number of hot days is likely to be higher than the multi-year average and higher than the same period in 2025 in Thanh Hoa to Hue and the South Central Coast. From around the beginning of September, hot weather will gradually decrease in the Northern region and from the second half of September 2026, it will decrease in the Central region" - Mr. Hoa said.
From October 2026 - December 2026, the average temperature nationwide is generally 1-2 degrees Celsius higher than the multi-year average of the same period, in some places higher.
From November 2026, cold air will increase in intensity, frequency and impact on our country's weather. The number of days of severe cold and harmful cold is likely to appear at a lower level than the multi-year average compared to the same period due to the impact of El Nino" - Mr. Hoa assessed the trend.
Rain tends to be less, but risk of extreme rain
Regarding the rain trend, from July 2026 - August 2026, moderate to heavy rain will be concentrated in the Northern region, Thanh Hoa to Hue city, Central Highlands and Southern regions.
September 2026 needs to be wary of moderate to heavy rains across the country.
The rainy season in the Central region is likely to be equivalent to the multi-year average (in the area from Quang Tri to Hue city around August 2026, the South Central Coast around September 2026)" - Mr. Hoa added.
Across the country, there is a possibility of dangerous weather phenomena such as thunderstorms, tornadoes, lightning, hail and strong gusts of wind.
From October to December, it is necessary to be wary of moderate to heavy rains across the country, especially concentrated in the Central region.
The meteorological agency believes that in El Nino conditions, rainfall tends to decrease but records of the largest rainfall in 24 hours may appear. For example, historic heavy rain at the end of July 2015 in Quang Ninh was during El Nino; major floods, historic floods at the end of September 2009 after storm No. 9 (Ketsana) in Quang Nam - Quang Ngai provinces.
Note that seasonal weather forecasting information is trend forecasting in nature. The meteorological agency especially emphasizes that in the context of climate change, weather, and climate are increasingly complicated with many dangerous and extreme forms such as heavy rain in a short time, flash floods, landslides...
Therefore, it is proposed to regularly update and integrate forecast information and hydrometeorological warnings in 1-3 day short-term bulletins, to promptly adjust production plans, appropriate response plans, especially appropriate reservoir operation plans, ensuring the safety of works and downstream areas, and at the same time ensuring safety for production and people's livelihoods.
