April marks a clear transition period in the North when temperatures increase and the first hot spells appear. That is also a sign that summer is about to knock on the door. Major climate patterns such as ENSO - which have a profound impact on global weather - are being closely monitored.
To update information on weather trends in the coming months, the reporter had an interview with Mr. Nguyen Duc Hoa - Deputy Head of Climate Forecasting Department, National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting.
Sir, is ENSO still in the La Nina phase and what is the current status?
- The La Nina phenomenon has not yet been officially confirmed as having begun a new cycle. According to criteria recognized by major climate centers around the world - such as the US Climate Center - to determine a La Nina cycle, the standard deviation of sea surface temperature in the central equatorial Pacific (also known as Nino 3.4) is below -0.5 degrees Celsius and the duration of this value is at least five consecutive months.
Up to now, the region has only recorded lower-than-average temperatures for about three consecutive months, so it is not enough to conclude that La Nina has begun.
Therefore, we assess that the atmospheric - ocean conditions are still in a neutral state leaning towards the cold phase, which is not yet entering a real La Nina cycle.
So, how will ENSO in a neutral state affect our country's weather in the coming months, especially in the North?
- Based on current forecast models, we believe that in April and May this year, the temperature in the Northern region will be generally at a level close to the average of many years. In particular, the Northwest region may be 0.5 to 1 degree Celsius higher than the average of many years.
However, the same period in 2024 is the time when the temperature is unusually high, while this year the temperature is forecast to be approximately average, so the possibility will be calmer.
Previously, April 2024 recorded a very high temperature of 2 - 4 degrees Celsius above average. It is forecasted that in April 2025, it is unlikely to reach the same "record" temperature as the same period last year.
When is the first widespread heat wave forecast to appear in the North, sir?
- According to our assessment, the heat waves this year will appear at the same time as the average of many years. Specifically, the Northwest region and some places in the North Central region are likely to record widespread heat in the second half of April.
Before that time - in March and early April, there were a few local hot spells.
Sincerely thank you!
