This morning, October 22, Mr. Mai Van Khiem - Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, Department of Hydro-Meteorology provided new comments on the impact of storm No. 12.
Mr. Mai Van Khiem, what is the notable characteristic of storm No. 12?
- Due to the impact of cold air, the intensity of storm No. 12 is not too strong (extreme level 10), it cannot increase the intensity of storms No. 10 (Bualoi), storm No. 11 ( Matmo). When entering the Hoang Sa special area, it was blocked by a cold air mass, so the storm changed direction and moved more slowly.
Although the storm intensity is not too great, it is still forecast to cause heavy rain on land because the storm circulation brings a large amount of moisture from the East Sea to the mainland, combined with strong northeast winds in the East Sea and the Gulf of Tonkin and East wind disturbances. The wind convergence and moisture of the three systems above are all strengthened by the blocking effect of the Truong Son range in the Central region, causing increased rain, lasting for many days, even after the storm dissipates.
As he analyzed, the most worrying impact is heavy rain. So how is the forecast for rainfall in the Central region?
- Heavy rain will be divided into 2 phases. Phase 1 (night of October 22-24) is due to the combined influence of storm No. 12, cold air and easterly winds, the Quang Tri - Da Nang area has common rainfall of 400 - 600 mm, locally over 800 mm, heavy rain over 200 mm/3 hours.
The Ha Tinh - Quang Ngai area will have rain of 100 - 250 mm, locally over 400 mm. This rain needs to pay attention to the risk of flooding in urban areas and industrial parks due to heavy rain combined with rising sea water causing slow drainage.
In the second period (from October 25-27), rain due to the influence of cold air combined with winter winds, in Quang Tri - Hue City, there was rainfall of 200-300 mm, locally over 500 mm. Ha Tinh, Da Nang and Quang Ngai 100-200 mm, locally over 300 mm. After October 27, the rain is likely to continue in the Central region.
How is there a risk of such prolonged heavy rain leading to other dangerous natural disasters, sir?
- Currently, floods on the Bo River and the Huong River (Hue City) are fluctuating above alert level 1. Other rivers from Quang Tri to Quang Ngai have slightly fluctuating water levels.
From the night of October 22 to 28, on rivers from Quang Tri to Quang Ngai, there is a possibility of a flood, flood peaks on rivers in some places may exceed alert level 3.
There is a high risk of deep and widespread flooding from Quang Tri to Quang Ngai. At the same time, the risk of flash floods on small rivers and streams and landslides on steep slopes in mountainous areas of these provinces is very high.
The storm intensity will weaken before reaching the shore, so is the impact of strong winds a concern, sir?
- Due to the combination of increased cold air, in the Gulf of Tonkin, there are strong northeast winds of level 7, gusting to level 9. The sea area from Quang Tri to Quang Ngai (including Con Co special area, Cu Lao Cham island and Ly Son special area) will have strong winds of level 6-7, near the storm's eye level 8, gusting to level 10; waves 3.0-5.0 m high, rough seas.
The coastal areas of provinces from Quang Tri to Da Nang are likely to experience storm surges of 0.4-0.8 m, with the risk of flooding in low-lying areas, coastal roads and coastal erosion due to large waves combined with high tides.
From the afternoon of October 22, on the mainland along the coast of the provinces from Quang Tri to Da Nang, the wind will gradually increase to level 6-7, gusting to level 8-9, strongest from the night of October 22 to the morning of October 23.
Coastal areas have winds of level 6-7, gusting to level 8-9; deep inland areas have winds of level 5, gusting to level 6-8; mountainous areas have level 4, sometimes level 5, gusting to level 6-7. It is necessary to be on guard against the possibility of thunderstorms, whirlwinds and strong gusts of wind in areas affected by storm circulation, both before and during the storm's landfall.
Sincerely thank you!
Warning of flood peak on rivers in the Central region in the coming days
Quang Tri: Gianh River at Mai Hoa station: alert level 2-3; Kien Giang River at Le Thuy station: above alert level 3 about 1.5 m; Hieu River at Dong Ha: alert level 2-3; Ben Hai River at Hien Luong: alert level 2-3; Thach Han River at Thach Han: alert level 3.
Hue City: Bo River in Phuoc: above alert level 3 from 0.3-0.5 m; Huong River in Kim Long: above alert level 3 from 0.2-0.3 m.
Da Nang: Vu Gia River in Ai Nghia: above alert level 3 from 0.3-0.5 m; Thu Bon River in Cau Lau: above alert level 3 from 0.1-0.2 m; Tam Ky River in Tam Ky: above alert level 3 from 0.2-0.4 m.
Quang Ngai: Tra Bong River in Chau - and Tra Cau River in Tra Cau: above alert level 3 from 0.3-0.5 m; Tra Khuc River in Tra Khuc: below alert level 3 from 0.2-0.3 m; Ve River in Ve River: above alert level 3 about 0.5 m; Se San River in Kon Tum: below alert level 1-2.
