After a record-breaking season in the Gulf of Mexico in 2024, in which Hurricane Beryl made landfall in the southeastern part of Texas, USA, ABC13 meteorologist Elyse Smith has released some storm forecast information for this year.
According to the forecast, the 2025 typhoon season is likely to fall into an ENSO neutral state, also known as La Nada. This means that the Atlantic trading winds will remain in place and at normal intensity, not significantly affected by El Nino or La Nina. Therefore, the air waves and ocean temperatures will not have major fluctuations due to the ENSO phenomenon.
An equally important factor affecting the hurricane season is sea temperatures. The warmer the sea water, the higher the likelihood of storms forming and strengthening.
The development of storms in the Atlantic can also be affected by the Western Western monsoon. Western monsoon creates strong thunderstorms, can move to the Atlantic Ocean and form tropical depression systems. However, according to weather experts, the phenomenon of Sahara dust (often appearing at the beginning of the storm season) can minimize this process.
For the potential hurricanes that threaten southeastern Texas, local and Caribbean weather systems will play a key role. If the rays appear in the Gulf of Mexico, upper-level winds will be stronger, which could weaken tropical storms.
The official hurricane forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will be released this week. Last month, forecasters at Colorado State University, USA, released a forecast showing that the 2025 hurricane season will be more intense than average. There are expected to be 17 tropical storms, of which 9 will become hurricanes and 4 are likely to be major storms, super typhoons.
ABC13 points out that another way to predict the hurricane season is to look back at years with similar atmospheric conditions. Dr. Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State University told meteorologist Elyse Smith that the similar years are 1996, 1999, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2017.
Some memorable years include 2008 with storm Ike and 2017 with storm Harvey. However, there are also years like 2006 and 1999 with very different typhoon seasons. There were below-average storms in 2006 and none of those hurricanes made landfall in the US. However, there are still some small storms affecting Florida. In 2011, the storm was active in the Atlantic and Gulf of Campeche, but did not have a major impact on the Gulf of Mexico.
According to an update from the US National Hurricane Center (NHC), there will be no activity related to storms or tropical depressions in the next 7 days. However, the center of the storm in Miami is still monitoring two low pressure troughs off the coast of Africa as they move westward but are unlikely to strengthen.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will last from June 1 to November 30, with the heaviest activity typically falling between August and October. The first names for the 2025 hurricane season include Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, Erin.
