20-year cycle returns, 2025 storm season forecast to start unusually

Thanh Hà |

The 2025 hurricane season begins late after June 1 - the official day of the Atlantic hurricane season.

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is the fourth consecutive year that no storms have formed before June 1, the official start date for the season.

The last time forecasters recorded a storm forming before the official hurricane season began was in 2021, when a storm formed in late May.

Since then, the first storms of the season have occurred in June.

The latest storm news from Fox Weather said that there are currently no storms or depressions appearing on forecast models, showing a remarkable change compared to the storm model that formed early in history.

For the 7 consecutive years of early storms forming before June 1, experts have raised the issue of adjusting the start date of the storm season earlier, to early May.

However, in recent years, the content of this discussion has gradually subsided due to the decline in the number of early storms.

The late start of the season has been unprecedented, with a similar streak recorded between 1994 and 2002, when most of the storms formed after June 1.

The 2024 and 2025 seasons also mark the first time in more than a decade that the US National Hurricane Center has not been tracking any storms or tropical depressions before June 1.

However, hurricane experts warn that a quiet start to the season does not mean a quiet one.

A noteworthy indicator is the likelihood of a tropical storm forming around June 20 - the average day the first storm to appear in the Atlantic.

If no storm forms at this milestone, concern will shift to how late the first storm will appear after June 20.

The first storm name for the 2025 hurricane season is Andrea. There is currently no sign that the storm will appear before June 1.

The last time the season's first storm formed on or after June 20 was the 2014 season, when Arthur formed on July 1.

However, the delay of storm No. 1 does not mean that the storm season will be weak or not have a significant impact. In 2005, the first storm did not form until June 10, but that season saw 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes, and seven major hurricanes, including monsters such as Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.

Statistics show that storms that start late (no activity in June) are less intense. On average, such typhoons have only about nine named storms, five typhoons, and two major typhoons.

One major reason for this phenomenon, in addition to unfavorable weather conditions, is the shortened duration of the storm's activity.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs for 183 days, from June 1 to November 30.

Thanh Hà
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