The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said it is monitoring two depressions within and near the country's forecast area (PAR).
According to the latest storm and tropical depression forecast bulletin of PAGASA for the week of September 9-15, at 3:00 p.m. on September 9, the center of the first depression was located at about 23.0 degrees north latitude, 129.5 degrees east longitude, about 830 km east-northeast of Luzon, within the forecast area (PAR) of the Philippines.
The depression has a moderate chance of strengthening into a storm and will be named Typhoon Ferdie after the locality.
Meanwhile, the second depression is located 2,435 km east of Eastern Visayas. It is forecast to move northwest and could enter PAR as a typhoon later this week. Once it enters PAR, the storm will be locally named Gener. The second depression will also intensify the monsoon and bring heavy rains.
In its storm forecast for the week of September 16-22, PAGASA said that two more depressions will form. The third depression is expected to form north of the PAR forecast area and move west. Meanwhile, the fourth depression is forecast to form near the west of Northern Luzon, very close to the South China Sea . The depression also has the potential to strengthen into a storm.
Previously, PAGASA predicted that there could be 2 or 3 storms forming within or entering the PAR region this September.
On September 9, PAGASA also released a report stating that neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions continue to prevail in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Most climate models combined with expert assessments indicate a 66% chance of La Nina forming during the September-October-November 2024 typhoon season and likely lasting until the first quarter (January-February-March) of 2025.
With these model probabilities, La Nina or La Nina-like conditions are likely in the coming months.
La Nina brings higher than normal rainfall to the Philippines with tropical storms forming closer to land. The eastern part of the country will bear the brunt of this climate pattern.
In early September, the Philippines was hit by Typhoon Enteng (international name Yagi, Vietnam calls it Typhoon No. 3 ). The Philippine Department of Social Welfare and Development said that 2.8 million Filipinos were affected by Typhoon Yagi, 20 people died, 20 people were injured and 26 people were missing.
