The latest round of major national polls and surveys in battleground states show the race between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump is closer than ever.
Yahoo News/YouGov Poll
According to the final Yahoo News/YouGov poll, Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris are now tied nationally.
Three previous Yahoo News/YouGov polls showed Ms. Harris holding a slight lead over Mr. Trump among registered voters, ranging from 1 point after the Democratic National Convention in August to 5 points after the September 10 debate.
Now, Ms. Harris (47%) and Mr. Trump (47%) are tied for the first time since Ms. Harris announced her candidacy on July 21.
Shocking Iowa Poll
A Des Moines Register poll from Oct. 28 to 31 and released over the weekend showed Harris (47%) leading Trump (44%) among likely voters in Iowa, a state that Democrats do not consider an advantage.
In June, the same poll showed Mr. Trump leading President Joe Biden by 18 points. In September, the poll showed Mr. Trump with a 4-point advantage over Ms. Harris.
“It’s hard for anyone to say they saw this coming,” said J. Ann Selzer, the pollster who conducted the survey. “It’s clear that Harris has jumped to the top.”
Mr Trump dismissed the poll in a post on Truth Social and called Selzer – the pollster who correctly predicted his victory in Iowa in 2016 and 2020 – a “Trump hater”.
National Polls
Three websites that aggregate national and state polls — Silver Bulletin, FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times — currently have the following national polling averages:
Silver Bulletin: Harris 48.5% - Trump 47.8%
FiveThirtyEight: Harris 47.9% - Trump 47.0%
New York Times: Harris 49% - Trump 48%
All three showed Ms Harris with a slight popular vote lead of 1 percentage point or less — within the combined margin of error.
Polls in battleground states
Similar sites have polling averages in the seven battleground states as follows:
Silver Bulletin
Nevada: Trump 48.4% - Harris 48.0%
Arizona: Trump 49.3% - Harris 46.7%
Wisconsin: Harris 48.6% - Trump 47.8%
Michigan: Harris 48.3% - Trump 47.2%
Pennsylvania: Trump 48.4% - Harris 48.0%
North Carolina: Trump 48.7% - Harris 47.6%
Georgia: Trump 48.9% - Harris 47.6%
FiveThirtyEight
Nevada: Trump 47.9% - Harris 47.3%
Arizona: Trump 49.0% - Harris 46.5%
Wisconsin: Harris 48.2% - Trump 47.3%
Michigan: Harris 47.9% - Trump 47.1%
Pennsylvania: Trump 47.9% - Harris 47.7%
North Carolina: Trump 48.4% - Harris 47.2%
Georgia: Trump 48.4% - Harris 47.2%
New York Times
Nevada: Trump 49% - Harris 48%
Arizona: Trump 50% - Harris 47%
Wisconsin: Harris 49% - Trump 48%
Michigan: Harris 49% - Trump 48%
Pennsylvania: Trump 49% - Harris 48%
North Carolina: Trump 48% - Harris 48%
Georgia: Trump 49% - Harris 48%
Polls show this is one of the closest presidential elections in American political history, said Nate Cohn, director of polling for The New York Times. "In modern polling history, there has never been a race where the final polls showed it to be so close."
Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania – known as the Democratic Party’s Blue Wall – are crucial for Ms Harris. In 2016, Mr Trump won all three of these traditionally Democratic-leaning states, helping him become US president. However, in 2020, Mr Joe Biden won all three of these battleground states.
