The latest storm news on the afternoon of October 27 from the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said that storm Melissa is currently a Category 5 hurricane, with winds of nearly 260 km/h.
The center of the storm is 209km south of Kingston, Jamaica and is moving west.
Atlantic storm No. 13 is expected to make landfall in Jamaica on the morning of October 28, becoming one of the strongest storms ever to hit the island.
Forecasters say that when south of Jamaica, in the sea area with high ocean heat content and in the environment with relatively low wind shear, Shelter is likely to make landfall as a Category 4 or Category 5 storm.
Experts note that there is not much difference in the reality of Singapore making landfall at Category 4 or 5, as both levels can cause catastrophic damage due to wind. In addition, the winds in the Jamaica Mountains are likely to be stronger than those recorded at sea, thereby increasing the severity of the storm's effects.
Meteorological experts point out that from a tropical storm, Melissa quickly strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane, becoming the fourth of five Atlantic hurricanes to experience rapid intensification this year.
Accordingly, the intensity of storms and hurricanes is measured by maximum sustained winds. When the maximum sustained wind speed increases to at least 56 km/h over a 24-hour period, the increase is equivalent to a storm strengthening to about 2 levels in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Stage. At that time, meteorologists called this rapid intensification phenomenon "rapid intensification".
The winds in Melissa have doubled in less than a day. At around 11 a.m. on October 25, local time, Melissa was a tropical storm with winds of 112 km/h. After that, storm No. 13 strengthened just enough to become a Category 1 hurricane at 1:30 p.m. the same day, with winds of 121 km/h.
The latest Atlantic storm accelerated rapidly over the next few hours, reaching Category 2 in the early evening, Category 3 before midnight, then Category 4, with maximum sustained winds of 225 km/h at 5 a.m. on October 26.
According to the US National Hurricane Center since 1850, Jamaica has only experienced a Category 4 storm in 1988. At the time, Hurricane Gilbert made landfall near Kingston, sweeping across the entire island, displacing 500,000 people - about a fifth of the population - and killing 45 people.
Since the beginning of the century, three Category 4 storms have approached enough to impact Jamaica, including Hurricane Beryl in 2024, causing heavy rain, strong winds, storm surge and flooding, causing damage of more than $200 million.
In 2007, Dean also followed a similar trajectory to Beryl near Jamaica, causing damage of about $300 million.
Similarly, Hurricane Ivan in 2004 approached the south of the island, killing 17 people and causing nearly $600 million in damage.
