Mr. Juanito Galang, Head of Weather Forecast Department of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said that the development of super typhoons often occurs at the end of the year, so the possibility of Typhoon No. 11 Kristine intensifying into a super typhoon cannot be ruled out.
Speaking at a press conference on October 21, Mr. Galang noted that Kristine's path is similar to that of Super Typhoon Lawin (international name Jelawat), which entered the Philippine Forecast Area (PAR) from the Pacific Ocean and then moved west-northwest in 2012.
We do not rule out the possibility of a super typhoon because by the end of the year, the typhoons often reach super typhoon level, Galang explained, stressing that there is still a possibility of Kristine becoming a super typhoon.
Like Super Typhoon Lawin, Kristine is expected to mainly affect Northern Luzon, Galang said. However, Kristine could still change course in the next 24 hours.
We are waiting until tomorrow to see if Kristine will make landfall in Central Luzon, Galang said.
Kristine's expected impact will be heavy rainfall over much of Luzon and light to moderate rainfall over Visayas and Mindanao.
According to the latest storm news from PAGASA, at 11:00 a.m. on October 21, the center of Typhoon Kristine was at about 13.2 degrees north latitude, 132.6 degrees east longitude, 870 km east of Eastern Visayas, carrying the strongest winds of 55 km/h, gusting up to 70 km/h, moving west-southwest at a speed of 30 km/h.
Although it is still quite far from the Philippine mainland, PAGASA has raised Tropical cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 in 15 areas nationwide.
Typhoon Kristine is forecast to move westward until tomorrow morning (October 22) before turning west-northwest to northwest from tomorrow afternoon until the end of the forecast period.
At 8 a.m. on October 23, Typhoon Kristine was about 520 km east of Baler, Aurora. By 8:00 p.m. the same day, the storm moved closer to Baler, Aurora, about 375 km away.
The tropical storm is expected to make landfall in Northern Luzon on Friday afternoon (25.10).
Typhoon No. 11 could strengthen to severe typhoon status tomorrow afternoon or evening (October 22) and typhoon status by Thursday afternoon or evening (October 24.) before making landfall in the northeastern part of Cagayan.
By 8 a.m. on October 26, the storm was turning toward the South China Sea, about 170 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte.
Because storm No. 11 is still in the Philippine Sea, the possibility of further strengthening is very high, considering the favorable environmental conditions (high sea surface temperature and low wind shear) for development.
Changes in the forecast track are also not ruled out, depending on the movement of mid-latitude weather systems in the coming days.
Kristine is the 11th storm to hit the Philippines this year.
