The latest storm news from PAGASA released at 11:00 a.m. on October 21 said that Kristine is still maintaining its intensity as it moves southwest over the Philippine Sea.
The bulletin stated that on the morning of October 21, Kristine was about 870km east of Eastern Visayas of the Philippines. Kristine is moving southwest at a speed of 30 km/h. The system has maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center and gusts of up to 70 km/h.
The forecast track and intensity of Typhoon Kristine released by PAGASA said the system is expected to move westward until the morning of October 22 before turning northwest to west-northwest from the afternoon of October 22 until the end of the forecast period. The latest storm near the South China Sea is expected to make landfall in Northern Luzon on October 25.
According to PAGASA's storm forecast, Kristine will strengthen into a tropical storm in the next 12 hours and may strengthen into a severe storm on October 23, then reach typhoon level on the evening of October 24 or the morning of October 25 before making landfall in northeastern Cagayan.
PAGASA's updated storm bulletin at 11:00 a.m. on October 21 stated that tropical storm Kristine is still in the Philippine Sea, so there is a possibility that the storm will strengthen further due to very favorable weather conditions: High sea temperatures and low wind shear.
PAGASA also does not rule out the possibility of changes in the path of Typhoon Kristine, depending on the movement of weather systems in the coming days.
PAGASA forecasters predict that at around 8pm on October 21, Kristine will be about 595km east of Catarman, Northern Samar, Philippines.
By 8:00 a.m. on October 22, Kristine is expected to be about 490 km east of Virac, Catanduanes. By 8:00 p.m. the same day, Kristine is expected to be about 480 km east of Daet, Camarines Norte.
At 8 a.m. on October 23, Typhoon Kristine was about 520 km east of Baler, Aurora. By 8:00 p.m. the same day, the storm Kristine near the East Sea will move closer to Baler, Aurora, about 375 km away.
At 8:00 a.m. on October 24, Typhoon Kristine was expected to be about 245 km east of Echague, Isabela.
On October 25, Typhoon Kristine is forecast to be in the vicinity of Penablanca, Cagayan. By 8 a.m. on October 26, the storm had turned toward the South China Sea, about 170 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte.
According to the latest storm and low pressure forecast from the US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) on October 21, Kristine (or 22W) was 1,239 km east of Manila, Philippines and had been moving west at a speed of 30 km/h for the previous 6 hours.
The system is expected to continue moving westward over the next 12 to 18 hours, starting to move west-northwest after 24 hours and then turning westward after the third day.
The JTWC's typhoon forecast states that Kristine is expected to reach typhoon strength before reaching Luzon. JTWC forecasters believe that Typhoon Kristine will make landfall on the east coast of Luzon, Philippines in about 84 hours, then move to the west coast of Luzon and enter the northern part of the East Sea at the end of the forecast period.
